The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% as of mid-August 2026, reflects persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside elevated term premiums from large fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply. Sticky core CPI readings and resilient labor market data have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or delayed rate cuts through year-end, with some participants now pricing in potential hikes. Longer-term yields also incorporate rising concerns over supply shocks and debt sustainability, pushing far-forward rates higher than earlier projections. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, August CPI and employment releases, and ongoing Treasury auction volumes, all of which could influence whether yields test levels above 5% before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años antes de 2027?
¿Qué tan alto será el rendimiento de los bonos del Tesoro a 10 años antes de 2027?
$286,324 Vol.
31 dic 2026
4,8%
69%
5,0%
35%
5,2%
5%
5,5%
7%
5,7%
6%
6,0%
6%
$286,324 Vol.
4,8%
$59,319 Vol.
69%
5,0%
$81,291 Vol.
35%
5,2%
$26,278 Vol.
5%
5,5%
$5,832 Vol.
7%
5,7%
$4,234 Vol.
6%
6,0%
$3,084 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% as of mid-August 2026, reflects persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside elevated term premiums from large fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply. Sticky core CPI readings and resilient labor market data have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or delayed rate cuts through year-end, with some participants now pricing in potential hikes. Longer-term yields also incorporate rising concerns over supply shocks and debt sustainability, pushing far-forward rates higher than earlier projections. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, August CPI and employment releases, and ongoing Treasury auction volumes, all of which could influence whether yields test levels above 5% before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Volumen
$286,324Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% as of mid-August 2026, reflects persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside elevated term premiums from large fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply. Sticky core CPI readings and resilient labor market data have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or delayed rate cuts through year-end, with some participants now pricing in potential hikes. Longer-term yields also incorporate rising concerns over supply shocks and debt sustainability, pushing far-forward rates higher than earlier projections. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, August CPI and employment releases, and ongoing Treasury auction volumes, all of which could influence whether yields test levels above 5% before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Volumen
$286,324Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% as of mid-August 2026, reflects persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target alongside elevated term premiums from large fiscal deficits and heavy Treasury supply. Sticky core CPI readings and resilient labor market data have shifted market-implied odds toward fewer or delayed rate cuts through year-end, with some participants now pricing in potential hikes. Longer-term yields also incorporate rising concerns over supply shocks and debt sustainability, pushing far-forward rates higher than earlier projections. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming FOMC communications, August CPI and employment releases, and ongoing Treasury auction volumes, all of which could influence whether yields test levels above 5% before 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes