The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act to $41.1 trillion has created substantial borrowing authority, with current debt levels leaving meaningful headroom into 2027 according to Bipartisan Policy Center and Treasury projections. Congress has routinely raised or suspended the limit in past standoffs, and extraordinary measures have consistently extended the timeline by months after any breach. This track record, combined with the structural incentives for both parties to avoid disrupting Treasury payments and global markets, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus against default by end-2027. A protracted impasse during 2027 ceiling talks or an unforeseen fiscal shock could still introduce limited risk, though historical precedent and market discipline make such outcomes improbable within the market window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?
¿Estados Unidos incurrirá en impago de deuda para 2027?
Sí
3% probabilidad
$16,315 Vol.
$16,315 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$16,315 Vol.
$16,315 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act to $41.1 trillion has created substantial borrowing authority, with current debt levels leaving meaningful headroom into 2027 according to Bipartisan Policy Center and Treasury projections. Congress has routinely raised or suspended the limit in past standoffs, and extraordinary measures have consistently extended the timeline by months after any breach. This track record, combined with the structural incentives for both parties to avoid disrupting Treasury payments and global markets, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus against default by end-2027. A protracted impasse during 2027 ceiling talks or an unforeseen fiscal shock could still introduce limited risk, though historical precedent and market discipline make such outcomes improbable within the market window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volumen
$16,315Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act to $41.1 trillion has created substantial borrowing authority, with current debt levels leaving meaningful headroom into 2027 according to Bipartisan Policy Center and Treasury projections. Congress has routinely raised or suspended the limit in past standoffs, and extraordinary measures have consistently extended the timeline by months after any breach. This track record, combined with the structural incentives for both parties to avoid disrupting Treasury payments and global markets, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus against default by end-2027. A protracted impasse during 2027 ceiling talks or an unforeseen fiscal shock could still introduce limited risk, though historical precedent and market discipline make such outcomes improbable within the market window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volumen
$16,315Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase enacted in the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act to $41.1 trillion has created substantial borrowing authority, with current debt levels leaving meaningful headroom into 2027 according to Bipartisan Policy Center and Treasury projections. Congress has routinely raised or suspended the limit in past standoffs, and extraordinary measures have consistently extended the timeline by months after any breach. This track record, combined with the structural incentives for both parties to avoid disrupting Treasury payments and global markets, underpins the 97.5% trader consensus against default by end-2027. A protracted impasse during 2027 ceiling talks or an unforeseen fiscal shock could still introduce limited risk, though historical precedent and market discipline make such outcomes improbable within the market window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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