Recent forecast guidance from Météo-France and ECMWF ensembles indicates the highest temperature in Paris on August 3 will most likely fall between 34–36 °C, reflecting a warm air mass that has persisted since late July heat-wave conditions. High-pressure subsidence and southerly flow have supported daytime maxima near or above seasonal norms, though model runs show modest cooling potential if Atlantic moisture arrives earlier than expected. Ensemble spread remains narrow for this short lead time, concentrating trader probability on the 35 °C outcome at 37.5 % while assigning lower weight to outliers above 37 °C or below 34 °C. Updated model cycles and official briefings through August 2 will provide the final observational constraints before resolution.