Traders see the tight race between 35°C and 36°C as the market-implied odds because early August forecasts for Beijing point to a daytime maximum near 34°C under mostly cloudy skies with a 40-50% chance of thundershowers. High humidity near 60-70% and light southerly winds limit evaporative cooling while Beijing’s urban heat island can add 1-2°C to official readings. Recent model consensus shows modest instability that may cap extreme heating yet allow brief peaks if convection develops later in the day. Historical early-August averages hover around 31-34°C, so any delay in storm timing or stronger subsidence would push readings toward the leading 36°C outcome. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance later today could shift these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Pekín el 1 de agosto?
¿La temperatura más alta en Pekín el 1 de agosto?
35°C 40%
36°C 40%
37°C 19%
38°C or higher 3.9%
$41,429 Vol.
$41,429 Vol.
1 ago 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
3%
35°C
40%
36°C
40%
37°C
19%
38°C or higher
4%
35°C 40%
36°C 40%
37°C 19%
38°C or higher 3.9%
$41,429 Vol.
$41,429 Vol.
1 ago 2026
28°C or below
$1,381 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$3,225 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$4,008 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$3,372 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$7,928 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$5,367 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$3,554 Vol.
3%
35°C
$2,547 Vol.
40%
36°C
$5,446 Vol.
40%
37°C
$2,927 Vol.
19%
38°C or higher
$1,673 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the tight race between 35°C and 36°C as the market-implied odds because early August forecasts for Beijing point to a daytime maximum near 34°C under mostly cloudy skies with a 40-50% chance of thundershowers. High humidity near 60-70% and light southerly winds limit evaporative cooling while Beijing’s urban heat island can add 1-2°C to official readings. Recent model consensus shows modest instability that may cap extreme heating yet allow brief peaks if convection develops later in the day. Historical early-August averages hover around 31-34°C, so any delay in storm timing or stronger subsidence would push readings toward the leading 36°C outcome. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance later today could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$41,429Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the tight race between 35°C and 36°C as the market-implied odds because early August forecasts for Beijing point to a daytime maximum near 34°C under mostly cloudy skies with a 40-50% chance of thundershowers. High humidity near 60-70% and light southerly winds limit evaporative cooling while Beijing’s urban heat island can add 1-2°C to official readings. Recent model consensus shows modest instability that may cap extreme heating yet allow brief peaks if convection develops later in the day. Historical early-August averages hover around 31-34°C, so any delay in storm timing or stronger subsidence would push readings toward the leading 36°C outcome. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance later today could shift these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$41,429Fecha de finalización
1 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the tight race between 35°C and 36°C as the market-implied odds because early August forecasts for Beijing point to a daytime maximum near 34°C under mostly cloudy skies with a 40-50% chance of thundershowers. High humidity near 60-70% and light southerly winds limit evaporative cooling while Beijing’s urban heat island can add 1-2°C to official readings. Recent model consensus shows modest instability that may cap extreme heating yet allow brief peaks if convection develops later in the day. Historical early-August averages hover around 31-34°C, so any delay in storm timing or stronger subsidence would push readings toward the leading 36°C outcome. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance later today could shift these probabilities.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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