Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a strong position in California's 23rd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge. The seat's Republican lean, consistent with its Cook Partisan Voting Index and Obernolte's prior general election margins above 60 percent, underpins trader consensus at 93 percent for the GOP. Obernolte advanced easily from the June 2026 top-two primary, while the Democratic field showed limited cohesion or resources. Historical turnout patterns and incumbency advantages further reinforce the current implied probability. A major scandal, unexpected national Democratic wave, or sharp shift in voter registration within the Central Valley counties could narrow the gap, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-23 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-23 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$59,838 Vol.
$59,838 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
93%
Partido Demócrata
6%
$59,838 Vol.
$59,838 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$28,127 Vol.
93%
Partido Demócrata
$31,711 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a strong position in California's 23rd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge. The seat's Republican lean, consistent with its Cook Partisan Voting Index and Obernolte's prior general election margins above 60 percent, underpins trader consensus at 93 percent for the GOP. Obernolte advanced easily from the June 2026 top-two primary, while the Democratic field showed limited cohesion or resources. Historical turnout patterns and incumbency advantages further reinforce the current implied probability. A major scandal, unexpected national Democratic wave, or sharp shift in voter registration within the Central Valley counties could narrow the gap, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volumen
$59,838Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a strong position in California's 23rd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge. The seat's Republican lean, consistent with its Cook Partisan Voting Index and Obernolte's prior general election margins above 60 percent, underpins trader consensus at 93 percent for the GOP. Obernolte advanced easily from the June 2026 top-two primary, while the Democratic field showed limited cohesion or resources. Historical turnout patterns and incumbency advantages further reinforce the current implied probability. A major scandal, unexpected national Democratic wave, or sharp shift in voter registration within the Central Valley counties could narrow the gap, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$59,838Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a strong position in California's 23rd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election against Democratic nominee Tessa Lynn Hodge. The seat's Republican lean, consistent with its Cook Partisan Voting Index and Obernolte's prior general election margins above 60 percent, underpins trader consensus at 93 percent for the GOP. Obernolte advanced easily from the June 2026 top-two primary, while the Democratic field showed limited cohesion or resources. Historical turnout patterns and incumbency advantages further reinforce the current implied probability. A major scandal, unexpected national Democratic wave, or sharp shift in voter registration within the Central Valley counties could narrow the gap, though no such developments have materialized in recent months.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes