California's 6th Congressional District, redrawn after Proposition 50, features a Democratic voter registration edge and suburban Sacramento territory that leans solidly blue in recent cycles. Independent incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from Republican and advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Democrat Richard Pan, faces structural disadvantages in a seat rated Safe Democratic by Cook Political Report and similar analysts. Fundraising, endorsement patterns, and historical turnout in the district have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A narrow polling gap in one recent survey highlights the race's competitiveness on paper, yet the district's partisan composition and lack of major late developments keep implied probabilities heavily tilted. Late shifts could arise from unexpected turnout swings, candidate scandals, or national economic conditions altering voter priorities before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-06 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-06 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$42,111 Vol.
$42,111 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
4%
$42,111 Vol.
$42,111 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$18,223 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$23,888 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th Congressional District, redrawn after Proposition 50, features a Democratic voter registration edge and suburban Sacramento territory that leans solidly blue in recent cycles. Independent incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from Republican and advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Democrat Richard Pan, faces structural disadvantages in a seat rated Safe Democratic by Cook Political Report and similar analysts. Fundraising, endorsement patterns, and historical turnout in the district have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A narrow polling gap in one recent survey highlights the race's competitiveness on paper, yet the district's partisan composition and lack of major late developments keep implied probabilities heavily tilted. Late shifts could arise from unexpected turnout swings, candidate scandals, or national economic conditions altering voter priorities before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volumen
$42,111Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th Congressional District, redrawn after Proposition 50, features a Democratic voter registration edge and suburban Sacramento territory that leans solidly blue in recent cycles. Independent incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from Republican and advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Democrat Richard Pan, faces structural disadvantages in a seat rated Safe Democratic by Cook Political Report and similar analysts. Fundraising, endorsement patterns, and historical turnout in the district have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A narrow polling gap in one recent survey highlights the race's competitiveness on paper, yet the district's partisan composition and lack of major late developments keep implied probabilities heavily tilted. Late shifts could arise from unexpected turnout swings, candidate scandals, or national economic conditions altering voter priorities before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$42,111Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 6th Congressional District, redrawn after Proposition 50, features a Democratic voter registration edge and suburban Sacramento territory that leans solidly blue in recent cycles. Independent incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from Republican and advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Democrat Richard Pan, faces structural disadvantages in a seat rated Safe Democratic by Cook Political Report and similar analysts. Fundraising, endorsement patterns, and historical turnout in the district have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A narrow polling gap in one recent survey highlights the race's competitiveness on paper, yet the district's partisan composition and lack of major late developments keep implied probabilities heavily tilted. Late shifts could arise from unexpected turnout swings, candidate scandals, or national economic conditions altering voter priorities before November.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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