Recent forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University point to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, with 8–14 or as few as 9 named storms expected amid a strengthening El Niño that increases wind shear and stabilizes the atmosphere. Early activity remains limited, with only Arthur and Bertha forming through late July against a 1991–2020 average of 14.4 storms. Traders weigh these conditions against historical variability and potential late-season shifts in sea surface temperatures or steering patterns that could push totals toward or below the 8–9 threshold. Model consensus favors suppression through peak months, though ENSO evolution and any rapid intensification windows introduce uncertainty ahead of ongoing NHC updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Previsión de tormentas con nombre en el Atlántico para 2026?
¿Previsión de tormentas con nombre en el Atlántico para 2026?
8 47%
9+ 47%
7 o menos 39%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 ago 2026
7 o menos
39%
8
47%
9+
47%
8 47%
9+ 47%
7 o menos 39%
NUEVO
NUEVO
10 ago 2026
7 o menos
$0 Vol.
39%
8
$0 Vol.
47%
9+
$0 Vol.
47%
This market resolves based on Colorado State University (CSU)'s August 2026 Forecast which will be released on August 5, 2026 (https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) and specifically CSU's forecast for total Named Storms for the full 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, as stated in the headline forecast table of the August 5, 2026 report. If the forecast is not released by August 10, 2026, this market resolves to "9+" which matches CSU's last forecast that was released on July 8, 2026.
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).Recent forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University point to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, with 8–14 or as few as 9 named storms expected amid a strengthening El Niño that increases wind shear and stabilizes the atmosphere. Early activity remains limited, with only Arthur and Bertha forming through late July against a 1991–2020 average of 14.4 storms. Traders weigh these conditions against historical variability and potential late-season shifts in sea surface temperatures or steering patterns that could push totals toward or below the 8–9 threshold. Model consensus favors suppression through peak months, though ENSO evolution and any rapid intensification windows introduce uncertainty ahead of ongoing NHC updates.
This market resolves based on Colorado State University (CSU)'s August 2026 Forecast which will be released on August 5, 2026 (https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) and specifically CSU's forecast for total Named Storms for the full 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, as stated in the headline forecast table of the August 5, 2026 report. If the forecast is not released by August 10, 2026, this market resolves to "9+" which matches CSU's last forecast that was released on July 8, 2026.
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).
Mercado abierto: Jul 30, 2026, 2:10 PM ET
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
10 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 30, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on Colorado State University (CSU)'s August 2026 Forecast which will be released on August 5, 2026 (https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) and specifically CSU's forecast for total Named Storms for the full 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, as stated in the headline forecast table of the August 5, 2026 report. If the forecast is not released by August 10, 2026, this market resolves to "9+" which matches CSU's last forecast that was released on July 8, 2026.
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).Recent forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University point to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, with 8–14 or as few as 9 named storms expected amid a strengthening El Niño that increases wind shear and stabilizes the atmosphere. Early activity remains limited, with only Arthur and Bertha forming through late July against a 1991–2020 average of 14.4 storms. Traders weigh these conditions against historical variability and potential late-season shifts in sea surface temperatures or steering patterns that could push totals toward or below the 8–9 threshold. Model consensus favors suppression through peak months, though ENSO evolution and any rapid intensification windows introduce uncertainty ahead of ongoing NHC updates.
This market resolves based on Colorado State University (CSU)'s August 2026 Forecast which will be released on August 5, 2026 (https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) and specifically CSU's forecast for total Named Storms for the full 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, as stated in the headline forecast table of the August 5, 2026 report. If the forecast is not released by August 10, 2026, this market resolves to "9+" which matches CSU's last forecast that was released on July 8, 2026.
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).
If CSU's forecast includes a fractional value, this market resolves to the nearest whole number (with .5 rounding up). If the forecast includes a range, this market resolves to the midpoint of that range, rounded down to the nearest whole number.
A named storm is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 39 mph or greater (tropical storm intensity or higher), as classified by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml).
Volumen
$0Fecha de finalización
10 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 30, 2026, 2:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University point to a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, with 8–14 or as few as 9 named storms expected amid a strengthening El Niño that increases wind shear and stabilizes the atmosphere. Early activity remains limited, with only Arthur and Bertha forming through late July against a 1991–2020 average of 14.4 storms. Traders weigh these conditions against historical variability and potential late-season shifts in sea surface temperatures or steering patterns that could push totals toward or below the 8–9 threshold. Model consensus favors suppression through peak months, though ENSO evolution and any rapid intensification windows introduce uncertainty ahead of ongoing NHC updates.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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