Traders see a fragmented field with no clear frontrunner for best text-to-video model by end of November, as Chinese developers like ByteDance (Seedance), Kuaishou (Kling 3.0), Alibaba (HappyHorse/Wan), and MiniMax (Hailuo/H3) trade benchmark leads on metrics such as prompt adherence, motion realism, and native audio synthesis. Google’s Veo 3.1 stands out for 4K output and integrated dialogue/sound effects, while Runway emphasizes professional editing controls and consistency. OpenAI’s Sora exit—consumer access ended in April and API shutdown set for late September—has depressed its odds and opened room for others. Rapid iteration, frequent releases, and integration moves like Adobe’s multi-model Premiere support keep sentiment fluid ahead of the November cutoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertByteDance 48%
Kandinsky 45%
Meta 39%
Lightricks 37%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
ByteDance
48%
Kandinsky
45%
Meta
39%
Lightricks
37%
Pika
21%
Pruna
19%
Runway
18%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
15%
Tencent
14%
Black Forest Labs
12%
MiniMax
12%
OpenAI
10%
9%
KlingAI
5%
Genmo AI
4%
Pixverse
2%
Luma AI
2%
SpaceXAI
2%
ByteDance 48%
Kandinsky 45%
Meta 39%
Lightricks 37%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
ByteDance
$71 Vol.
48%
Kandinsky
$71 Vol.
45%
Meta
$71 Vol.
39%
Lightricks
$71 Vol.
37%
Pika
$50 Vol.
21%
Pruna
$57 Vol.
19%
Runway
$57 Vol.
18%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$57 Vol.
15%
Tencent
$55 Vol.
14%
Black Forest Labs
$57 Vol.
12%
MiniMax
$57 Vol.
12%
OpenAI
$71 Vol.
10%
$71 Vol.
9%
KlingAI
$50 Vol.
5%
Genmo AI
$50 Vol.
4%
Pixverse
$57 Vol.
2%
Luma AI
$57 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$56 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a fragmented field with no clear frontrunner for best text-to-video model by end of November, as Chinese developers like ByteDance (Seedance), Kuaishou (Kling 3.0), Alibaba (HappyHorse/Wan), and MiniMax (Hailuo/H3) trade benchmark leads on metrics such as prompt adherence, motion realism, and native audio synthesis. Google’s Veo 3.1 stands out for 4K output and integrated dialogue/sound effects, while Runway emphasizes professional editing controls and consistency. OpenAI’s Sora exit—consumer access ended in April and API shutdown set for late September—has depressed its odds and opened room for others. Rapid iteration, frequent releases, and integration moves like Adobe’s multi-model Premiere support keep sentiment fluid ahead of the November cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Sep 17, 2026, 8:15 PM ET
Volumen
$1,081Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:15 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a fragmented field with no clear frontrunner for best text-to-video model by end of November, as Chinese developers like ByteDance (Seedance), Kuaishou (Kling 3.0), Alibaba (HappyHorse/Wan), and MiniMax (Hailuo/H3) trade benchmark leads on metrics such as prompt adherence, motion realism, and native audio synthesis. Google’s Veo 3.1 stands out for 4K output and integrated dialogue/sound effects, while Runway emphasizes professional editing controls and consistency. OpenAI’s Sora exit—consumer access ended in April and API shutdown set for late September—has depressed its odds and opened room for others. Rapid iteration, frequent releases, and integration moves like Adobe’s multi-model Premiere support keep sentiment fluid ahead of the November cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$1,081Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:15 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a fragmented field with no clear frontrunner for best text-to-video model by end of November, as Chinese developers like ByteDance (Seedance), Kuaishou (Kling 3.0), Alibaba (HappyHorse/Wan), and MiniMax (Hailuo/H3) trade benchmark leads on metrics such as prompt adherence, motion realism, and native audio synthesis. Google’s Veo 3.1 stands out for 4K output and integrated dialogue/sound effects, while Runway emphasizes professional editing controls and consistency. OpenAI’s Sora exit—consumer access ended in April and API shutdown set for late September—has depressed its odds and opened room for others. Rapid iteration, frequent releases, and integration moves like Adobe’s multi-model Premiere support keep sentiment fluid ahead of the November cutoff.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen