The closely matched implied probabilities across numerous AI labs reflect intense competition in math-focused large language model evaluations on Text Arena, where small benchmark edges can shift quickly. Anthropic's recent Claude variants lead current math category scores around 1520+, driven by strong performance on reasoning tasks, while OpenAI's GPT-5 series, Google's Gemini models, and Chinese labs including Z.ai (GLM), Alibaba (Qwen), Moonshot (Kimi), and DeepSeek deliver comparable results on benchmarks like AIME and MATH-500. Key differentiators include specialized reasoning capabilities, training scale, and cost efficiency, with open-weight options gaining traction. Upcoming model updates or new capability demonstrations before November's end remain the main swing factors in this uncertain environment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertSpaceXAI 38%
Z.ai 37%
Microsoft 34%
Moonshot 25%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
SpaceXAI
38%
Z.ai
37%
Microsoft
34%
Moonshot
25%
StepFun
23%
OpenAI
22%
Xiaomi
21%
DeepSeek
21%
Alibaba
20%
19%
Thinky
16%
Meituan
15%
Baidu
14%
Meta
12%
Nvidia
18%
Tencent
8%
MiniMax
7%
Mistral
6%
Anthropic
3%
Amazon
3%
ByteDance
38%
SpaceXAI 38%
Z.ai 37%
Microsoft 34%
Moonshot 25%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
SpaceXAI
$34 Vol.
38%
Z.ai
$34 Vol.
37%
Microsoft
$34 Vol.
34%
Moonshot
$34 Vol.
25%
StepFun
$34 Vol.
23%
OpenAI
$34 Vol.
22%
Xiaomi
$34 Vol.
21%
DeepSeek
$34 Vol.
21%
Alibaba
$34 Vol.
20%
$34 Vol.
19%
Thinky
$34 Vol.
16%
Meituan
$34 Vol.
15%
Baidu
$34 Vol.
14%
Meta
$34 Vol.
12%
Nvidia
$47 Vol.
18%
Tencent
$21 Vol.
8%
MiniMax
$34 Vol.
7%
Mistral
$66 Vol.
6%
Anthropic
$21 Vol.
3%
Amazon
$50 Vol.
3%
ByteDance
$35 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched implied probabilities across numerous AI labs reflect intense competition in math-focused large language model evaluations on Text Arena, where small benchmark edges can shift quickly. Anthropic's recent Claude variants lead current math category scores around 1520+, driven by strong performance on reasoning tasks, while OpenAI's GPT-5 series, Google's Gemini models, and Chinese labs including Z.ai (GLM), Alibaba (Qwen), Moonshot (Kimi), and DeepSeek deliver comparable results on benchmarks like AIME and MATH-500. Key differentiators include specialized reasoning capabilities, training scale, and cost efficiency, with open-weight options gaining traction. Upcoming model updates or new capability demonstrations before November's end remain the main swing factors in this uncertain environment.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volumen
$743Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched implied probabilities across numerous AI labs reflect intense competition in math-focused large language model evaluations on Text Arena, where small benchmark edges can shift quickly. Anthropic's recent Claude variants lead current math category scores around 1520+, driven by strong performance on reasoning tasks, while OpenAI's GPT-5 series, Google's Gemini models, and Chinese labs including Z.ai (GLM), Alibaba (Qwen), Moonshot (Kimi), and DeepSeek deliver comparable results on benchmarks like AIME and MATH-500. Key differentiators include specialized reasoning capabilities, training scale, and cost efficiency, with open-weight options gaining traction. Upcoming model updates or new capability demonstrations before November's end remain the main swing factors in this uncertain environment.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$743Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched implied probabilities across numerous AI labs reflect intense competition in math-focused large language model evaluations on Text Arena, where small benchmark edges can shift quickly. Anthropic's recent Claude variants lead current math category scores around 1520+, driven by strong performance on reasoning tasks, while OpenAI's GPT-5 series, Google's Gemini models, and Chinese labs including Z.ai (GLM), Alibaba (Qwen), Moonshot (Kimi), and DeepSeek deliver comparable results on benchmarks like AIME and MATH-500. Key differentiators include specialized reasoning capabilities, training scale, and cost efficiency, with open-weight options gaining traction. Upcoming model updates or new capability demonstrations before November's end remain the main swing factors in this uncertain environment.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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