The closely matched probabilities across OpenAI at 25.5% and several Chinese labs near 20% reflect a fluid race for second place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard under the Style Control On filter, with no dominant contender as of mid-September 2026. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s consistent updates to models like GPT series and image tools against rapid progress from labs such as StepFun and MiniMax, which benefit from specialized generative capabilities and open research contributions. Broader dynamics include intense competition in large language model performance, where style adherence, reasoning benchmarks, and user engagement metrics can shift rankings quickly. Key catalysts ahead include potential model releases or leaderboard updates through late November that could alter the current trader consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMiniMax 24%
ByteDance 16%
Nvidia 15%
Microsoft 15%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
MiniMax
24%
ByteDance
16%
Nvidia
15%
Microsoft
15%
Baidu
15%
Thinky
15%
Tencent
15%
Z.ai
14%
Mistral
14%
Amazon
14%
StepFun
14%
Meta
14%
Moonshot
14%
13%
Anthropic
12%
OpenAI
22%
SpaceXAI
12%
DeepSeek
11%
Meituan
11%
Xiaomi
10%
Alibaba
7%
MiniMax 24%
ByteDance 16%
Nvidia 15%
Microsoft 15%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
MiniMax
$32 Vol.
24%
ByteDance
$32 Vol.
16%
Nvidia
$32 Vol.
15%
Microsoft
$32 Vol.
15%
Baidu
$32 Vol.
15%
Thinky
$32 Vol.
15%
Tencent
$32 Vol.
15%
Z.ai
$57 Vol.
14%
Mistral
$32 Vol.
14%
Amazon
$32 Vol.
14%
StepFun
$32 Vol.
14%
Meta
$32 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$32 Vol.
14%
$65 Vol.
13%
Anthropic
$32 Vol.
12%
OpenAI
$54 Vol.
22%
SpaceXAI
$32 Vol.
12%
DeepSeek
$32 Vol.
11%
Meituan
$32 Vol.
11%
Xiaomi
$32 Vol.
10%
Alibaba
$58 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities across OpenAI at 25.5% and several Chinese labs near 20% reflect a fluid race for second place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard under the Style Control On filter, with no dominant contender as of mid-September 2026. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s consistent updates to models like GPT series and image tools against rapid progress from labs such as StepFun and MiniMax, which benefit from specialized generative capabilities and open research contributions. Broader dynamics include intense competition in large language model performance, where style adherence, reasoning benchmarks, and user engagement metrics can shift rankings quickly. Key catalysts ahead include potential model releases or leaderboard updates through late November that could alter the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
Volumen
$782Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities across OpenAI at 25.5% and several Chinese labs near 20% reflect a fluid race for second place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard under the Style Control On filter, with no dominant contender as of mid-September 2026. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s consistent updates to models like GPT series and image tools against rapid progress from labs such as StepFun and MiniMax, which benefit from specialized generative capabilities and open research contributions. Broader dynamics include intense competition in large language model performance, where style adherence, reasoning benchmarks, and user engagement metrics can shift rankings quickly. Key catalysts ahead include potential model releases or leaderboard updates through late November that could alter the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$782Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities across OpenAI at 25.5% and several Chinese labs near 20% reflect a fluid race for second place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard under the Style Control On filter, with no dominant contender as of mid-September 2026. Traders appear to weigh OpenAI’s consistent updates to models like GPT series and image tools against rapid progress from labs such as StepFun and MiniMax, which benefit from specialized generative capabilities and open research contributions. Broader dynamics include intense competition in large language model performance, where style adherence, reasoning benchmarks, and user engagement metrics can shift rankings quickly. Key catalysts ahead include potential model releases or leaderboard updates through late November that could alter the current trader consensus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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