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icon for #3 KI-Labor Ende November? (Stilsteuerung Ein)
Technik·AI

#3 KI-Labor Ende November? (Stilsteuerung Ein)

icon for #3 KI-Labor Ende November? (Stilsteuerung Ein)
Technik·AI

#3 KI-Labor Ende November? (Stilsteuerung Ein)

Okt. 1

Nov. 1

Dez. 1

Okt. 1

Nov. 1

Dez. 1

Microsoft 25%

Meta 23%

Tencent 23%

Alibaba 14%

Polymarket
NEU

Microsoft 25%

Meta 23%

Tencent 23%

Alibaba 14%

Polymarket
NEU
icon for Microsoft

Microsoft

$45 Vol.

25%

icon for Meta

Meta

$45 Vol.

23%

icon for Tencent

Tencent

$45 Vol.

23%

icon for Alibaba

Alibaba

$45 Vol.

14%

icon for Mistral

Mistral

$45 Vol.

14%

icon for Moonshot

Moonshot

$45 Vol.

13%

icon for ByteDance

ByteDance

$45 Vol.

13%

icon for Amazon

Amazon

$45 Vol.

13%

icon for Meituan

Meituan

$45 Vol.

13%

icon for Nvidia

Nvidia

$45 Vol.

13%

icon for StepFun

StepFun

$45 Vol.

12%

icon for Google

Google

$51 Vol.

12%

icon for MiniMax

MiniMax

$45 Vol.

12%

icon for Baidu

Baidu

$45 Vol.

9%

icon for Z.ai

Z.ai

$45 Vol.

9%

icon for Anthropic

Anthropic

$45 Vol.

7%

icon for Thinky

Thinky

$45 Vol.

7%

icon for OpenAI

OpenAI

$45 Vol.

6%

icon for Xiaomi

Xiaomi

$58 Vol.

13%

icon for DeepSeek

DeepSeek

$45 Vol.

6%

icon for SpaceXAI

SpaceXAI

$48 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have tightened the race for third place on style-controlled leaderboards such as LMSYS Arena, where Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra currently occupy the top two spots while Google, Moonshot, and Alibaba trail. Trader sentiment reflects this parity, with no lab exceeding 28% implied probability amid rapid iteration cycles and benchmark volatility. Chinese labs continue closing capability gaps on reasoning and coding tasks, yet U.S. frontier models retain edges in human-preference voting after style adjustments. Key catalysts through November include potential flagship updates, new benchmark releases, and any shifts in inference speed or context handling that could reorder the middle tier.

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$975
Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent model releases have tightened the race for third place on style-controlled leaderboards such as LMSYS Arena, where Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra currently occupy the top two spots while Google, Moonshot, and Alibaba trail. Trader sentiment reflects this parity, with no lab exceeding 28% implied probability amid rapid iteration cycles and benchmark volatility. Chinese labs continue closing capability gaps on reasoning and coding tasks, yet U.S. frontier models retain edges in human-preference voting after style adjustments. Key catalysts through November include potential flagship updates, new benchmark releases, and any shifts in inference speed or context handling that could reorder the middle tier.

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.

Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.

AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$975
Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:11 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Wird StepFun am Ende November 2026 das zweitgrößte KI-Labor sein?

Wird StepFun am Ende November 2026 das zweitgrößte KI-Labor sein?

21%
Ja
icon for Wird MiniMax Ende November 2026 das drittbeste KI-Labor sein?

Wird MiniMax Ende November 2026 das drittbeste KI-Labor sein?

22%
Ja
icon for Wird Baidu Ende November 2026 das zweitbeste KI-Labor sein?

Wird Baidu Ende November 2026 das zweitbeste KI-Labor sein?

40%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„#3 KI-Labor Ende November? (Stilsteuerung Ein)" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 21 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Microsoft" mit 25%, gefolgt von „Meta" mit 23%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 25¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 25% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„#3 KI-Labor Ende November? (Stilsteuerung Ein)" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Sep 17, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „#3 KI-Labor Ende November? (Stilsteuerung Ein)" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 21 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „#3 KI-Labor Ende November? (Stilsteuerung Ein)" ist „Microsoft" mit 25%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 25% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Meta" mit 23%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „#3 KI-Labor Ende November? (Stilsteuerung Ein)" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.