Sweden's Social Democrats maintain a clear lead as the largest party in the final days before the 13 September 2026 parliamentary election, with recent polling averages placing them at approximately 28% against 19% for the Sweden Democrats, implying a roughly 9-percentage-point margin. This positioning aligns with the market's highest-probability outcome of a 7-10% margin. The gap has narrowed modestly from earlier summer levels as the right-wing Tidö bloc gains ground through improved Liberal Party support above the 4% threshold and tighter bloc competition on issues including security, immigration, and the economy. Multiple September surveys from Novus, Ipsos, and others confirm Social Democrats' consistent plurality while highlighting volatility in second-place positioning that could compress or expand the margin in the final vote count.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertS 7-10% 51%
S 4-7% 22%
S 10-13% 18%
S <4% 6%
NEU
NEU
12. Sep. 2026
S <4%
6%
S 4-7%
22%
S 7-10%
51%
S 10-13%
18%
S 13%+
6%
Eine andere Partei gewinnt
3%
S 7-10% 51%
S 4-7% 22%
S 10-13% 18%
S <4% 6%
NEU
NEU
12. Sep. 2026
S <4%
$1,190 Vol.
6%
S 4-7%
$14 Vol.
22%
S 7-10%
$408 Vol.
51%
S 10-13%
$29 Vol.
18%
S 13%+
$134 Vol.
6%
Eine andere Partei gewinnt
$78 Vol.
3%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Sweden's Social Democrats maintain a clear lead as the largest party in the final days before the 13 September 2026 parliamentary election, with recent polling averages placing them at approximately 28% against 19% for the Sweden Democrats, implying a roughly 9-percentage-point margin. This positioning aligns with the market's highest-probability outcome of a 7-10% margin. The gap has narrowed modestly from earlier summer levels as the right-wing Tidö bloc gains ground through improved Liberal Party support above the 4% threshold and tighter bloc competition on issues including security, immigration, and the economy. Multiple September surveys from Novus, Ipsos, and others confirm Social Democrats' consistent plurality while highlighting volatility in second-place positioning that could compress or expand the margin in the final vote count.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 8, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volumen
$1,853Enddatum
13. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 4:58 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Sweden's Social Democrats maintain a clear lead as the largest party in the final days before the 13 September 2026 parliamentary election, with recent polling averages placing them at approximately 28% against 19% for the Sweden Democrats, implying a roughly 9-percentage-point margin. This positioning aligns with the market's highest-probability outcome of a 7-10% margin. The gap has narrowed modestly from earlier summer levels as the right-wing Tidö bloc gains ground through improved Liberal Party support above the 4% threshold and tighter bloc competition on issues including security, immigration, and the economy. Multiple September surveys from Novus, Ipsos, and others confirm Social Democrats' consistent plurality while highlighting volatility in second-place positioning that could compress or expand the margin in the final vote count.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Volumen
$1,853Enddatum
13. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 4:58 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Sweden's Social Democrats maintain a clear lead as the largest party in the final days before the 13 September 2026 parliamentary election, with recent polling averages placing them at approximately 28% against 19% for the Sweden Democrats, implying a roughly 9-percentage-point margin. This positioning aligns with the market's highest-probability outcome of a 7-10% margin. The gap has narrowed modestly from earlier summer levels as the right-wing Tidö bloc gains ground through improved Liberal Party support above the 4% threshold and tighter bloc competition on issues including security, immigration, and the economy. Multiple September surveys from Novus, Ipsos, and others confirm Social Democrats' consistent plurality while highlighting volatility in second-place positioning that could compress or expand the margin in the final vote count.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen