Skip to main content

Um in den USA zu traden, geh zu polymarket.us

icon for Israel-Wahl: Amcha Yisrael Stimmenanteil?
Welt·Israel

Israel-Wahl: Amcha Yisrael Stimmenanteil?

icon for Israel-Wahl: Amcha Yisrael Stimmenanteil?
Welt·Israel

Israel-Wahl: Amcha Yisrael Stimmenanteil?

4-5% 31%

3,25-4% 29%

<2,5 % 28%

5 %+ 27%

Polymarket
NEU

4-5% 31%

3,25-4% 29%

<2,5 % 28%

5 %+ 27%

Polymarket
NEU

<2,5 %

$20 Vol.

47%

2,5-3,25%

$0 Vol.

25%

3,25-4%

$0 Vol.

29%

4-5%

$0 Vol.

31%

5 %+

$0 Vol.

27%

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls released in early September 2026 place Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter in late August, between roughly 2.1% and 4% of the vote, straddling Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Multiple surveys show the party either failing to qualify or securing four seats, with support drawn primarily from other right-wing lists amid a fragmented bloc. Candidate-list finalization and ongoing volatility in voter intentions have kept probabilities tightly clustered around the threshold brackets. Modest shifts in turnout among religious or nationalist voters or further consolidation within the right could push the party decisively above or below the line before election day.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.

If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volumen
$20
Enddatum
30. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.bechirot.gov.il/

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls released in early September 2026 place Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter in late August, between roughly 2.1% and 4% of the vote, straddling Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Multiple surveys show the party either failing to qualify or securing four seats, with support drawn primarily from other right-wing lists amid a fragmented bloc. Candidate-list finalization and ongoing volatility in voter intentions have kept probabilities tightly clustered around the threshold brackets. Modest shifts in turnout among religious or nationalist voters or further consolidation within the right could push the party decisively above or below the line before election day.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.

If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.

If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset. If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
Volumen
$20
Enddatum
30. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.bechirot.gov.il/

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Wird Yisrael Beiteinu bei den Knesset-Wahlen 2026 6-7 % der Stimmen gewinnen?

Wird Yisrael Beiteinu bei den Knesset-Wahlen 2026 6-7 % der Stimmen gewinnen?

35%
Ja
icon for Wird Amcha Yisrael bei den Knesset-Wahlen 2026 weniger als 4 Sitze gewinnen?

Wird Amcha Yisrael bei den Knesset-Wahlen 2026 weniger als 4 Sitze gewinnen?

54%
Ja
icon for Wird Otzma Yehudit bei den Knesset-Wahlen 2026 4,5-5,5 % der Stimmen erhalten?

Wird Otzma Yehudit bei den Knesset-Wahlen 2026 4,5-5,5 % der Stimmen erhalten?

37%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Israel-Wahl: Amcha Yisrael Stimmenanteil?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „<2,5 %" mit 47%, gefolgt von „4-5%" mit 31%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 47¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 47% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Israel-Wahl: Amcha Yisrael Stimmenanteil?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Sep 8, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Israel-Wahl: Amcha Yisrael Stimmenanteil?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 5 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Israel-Wahl: Amcha Yisrael Stimmenanteil?" ist „<2,5 %" mit 47%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 47% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „4-5%" mit 31%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Israel-Wahl: Amcha Yisrael Stimmenanteil?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.