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Politik·Brasilien

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 2. Platz

icon for Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 2. Platz
Politik·Brasilien

Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 2. Platz

Flávio Bolsonaro 86%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7.3%

Renan Santos 4.7%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Polymarket

$4,896,123 Vol.

Flávio Bolsonaro 86%

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 7.3%

Renan Santos 4.7%

Ronaldo Caiado <1%

Polymarket

$4,896,123 Vol.

icon for Flávio Bolsonaro

Flávio Bolsonaro

$299,823 Vol.

86%

icon for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

$265,894 Vol.

7%

icon for Renan Santos

Renan Santos

$1,116,823 Vol.

5%

icon for Ronaldo Caiado

Ronaldo Caiado

$364,425 Vol.

1%

icon for Camilo Santana

Camilo Santana

$127,248 Vol.

<1%

icon for Michelle Bolsonaro

Michelle Bolsonaro

$149,260 Vol.

<1%

icon for Romeu Zema

Romeu Zema

$314,233 Vol.

<1%

icon for Fernando Haddad

Fernando Haddad

$744,770 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Bolsonaro

Eduardo Bolsonaro

$110,915 Vol.

<1%

icon for Aldo Rebelo

Aldo Rebelo

$72,555 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tarcisio de Freitas

Tarcisio de Freitas

$209,249 Vol.

<1%

icon for Jair Bolsonaro

Jair Bolsonaro

$139,234 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ratinho Júnior

Ratinho Júnior

$682,224 Vol.

<1%

icon for Geraldo Alckmin

Geraldo Alckmin

$163,054 Vol.

<1%

icon for Eduardo Leite

Eduardo Leite

$79,943 Vol.

<1%

icon for Helder Barbalho

Helder Barbalho

$20,972 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tereza Cristina

Tereza Cristina

$35,504 Vol.

<1%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro's dominant position in 2026 first-round polling, consistently placing him in the low-to-mid 30s percent behind only incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, drives the strong trader consensus around his second-place finish. The Liberal Party's July nomination of the senator as its candidate consolidated right-wing support following his father's endorsement and Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. Other contenders, including Renan Santos of the Mission Party and Ronaldo Caiado, remain in the low single digits in recent surveys from Nexus, Quaest, and Datafolha, reflecting a fragmented field outside the top two. Earlier 2026 controversies around Flávio, including leaked audio and a brief family rift, did not materially alter his polling lead over secondary candidates. With the October 4 first round approaching, scheduled campaign events and further polling releases represent the primary near-term variables.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$4,896,123
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Flávio Bolsonaro's dominant position in 2026 first-round polling, consistently placing him in the low-to-mid 30s percent behind only incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, drives the strong trader consensus around his second-place finish. The Liberal Party's July nomination of the senator as its candidate consolidated right-wing support following his father's endorsement and Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. Other contenders, including Renan Santos of the Mission Party and Ronaldo Caiado, remain in the low single digits in recent surveys from Nexus, Quaest, and Datafolha, reflecting a fragmented field outside the top two. Earlier 2026 controversies around Flávio, including leaked audio and a brief family rift, did not materially alter his polling lead over secondary candidates. With the October 4 first round approaching, scheduled campaign events and further polling releases represent the primary near-term variables.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.

The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$4,896,123
Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Verwandte

icon for Wird Renan Santos in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den dritten Platz belegen?

Wird Renan Santos in der ersten Runde der brasilianischen Präsidentschaftswahl 2026 den dritten Platz belegen?

53%
Ja
icon for Wird Flavio Bolsonaro bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen im Bundesdistrikt erhalten?

Wird Flavio Bolsonaro bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen im Bundesdistrikt erhalten?

79%
Ja
icon for Wird Flavio Bolsonaro bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen aus Paraná erhalten?

Wird Flavio Bolsonaro bei der nächsten Präsidentschaftswahl in Brasilien die meisten Stimmen aus Paraná erhalten?

94%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 2. Platz" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 17 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Flávio Bolsonaro" mit 86%, gefolgt von „Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" mit 7%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 86¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 86% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 2. Platz" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $4.9 million generiert, seit der Markt am Feb 11, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 2. Platz" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 17 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 2. Platz" ist „Flávio Bolsonaro" mit 86%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 86% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva" mit 7%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Brasilianische Präsidentschaftswahl, erste Runde: 2. Platz" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.