**The market-implied odds strongly favor 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in official observational data.** Early September in the region typically features cooling from the approach of a frontal system, with overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies allowing minimums to dip into the mid-teens Celsius. Multiple meteorological sources, including forecasts from sites tracking Congonhas Airport and regional models, converged on a daily minimum of 15°C (or very close), with daytime highs near 26°C. This alignment between pre-event model runs, real-time station readings, and post-event verification created near-certainty once the 24-hour period closed. The 99% probability on 15°C indicates skin-in-the-game confidence that the official minimum—likely from INMET or airport networks—settled precisely at that threshold rather than 14°C or 16°C. Minor model spreads or microclimate variations between urban stations could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but consistent reports across sources made such outcomes improbable. Upcoming resolution hinges on the final official daily summary, with no major data revisions expected given the stability of observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Sao Paulo am 4. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Sao Paulo am 4. September?
15°C 100.0%
13°C oder darunter 1.0%
14°C 1.0%
16°C <1%
$2,475 Vol.
$2,475 Vol.
4. Sep. 2026
13°C oder darunter
Nein
14°C
Nein
15°C
Ja
16°C
Nein
17°C
Nein
18°C
Nein
19°C
Nein
20°C
Nein
21°C
Nein
22°C
Nein
23°C oder höher
Nein
15°C 100.0%
13°C oder darunter 1.0%
14°C 1.0%
16°C <1%
$2,475 Vol.
$2,475 Vol.
4. Sep. 2026
13°C oder darunter
$70 Vol.
Nein
14°C
$79 Vol.
Nein
15°C
$535 Vol.
Ja
16°C
$139 Vol.
Nein
17°C
$308 Vol.
Nein
18°C
$326 Vol.
Nein
19°C
$104 Vol.
Nein
20°C
$112 Vol.
Nein
21°C
$267 Vol.
Nein
22°C
$267 Vol.
Nein
23°C oder höher
$267 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The market-implied odds strongly favor 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in official observational data.**
Early September in the region typically features cooling from the approach of a frontal system, with overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies allowing minimums to dip into the mid-teens Celsius. Multiple meteorological sources, including forecasts from sites tracking Congonhas Airport and regional models, converged on a daily minimum of 15°C (or very close), with daytime highs near 26°C. This alignment between pre-event model runs, real-time station readings, and post-event verification created near-certainty once the 24-hour period closed.
The 99% probability on 15°C indicates skin-in-the-game confidence that the official minimum—likely from INMET or airport networks—settled precisely at that threshold rather than 14°C or 16°C. Minor model spreads or microclimate variations between urban stations could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but consistent reports across sources made such outcomes improbable. Upcoming resolution hinges on the final official daily summary, with no major data revisions expected given the stability of observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ET
Volumen
$2,475Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The market-implied odds strongly favor 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in official observational data.**
Early September in the region typically features cooling from the approach of a frontal system, with overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies allowing minimums to dip into the mid-teens Celsius. Multiple meteorological sources, including forecasts from sites tracking Congonhas Airport and regional models, converged on a daily minimum of 15°C (or very close), with daytime highs near 26°C. This alignment between pre-event model runs, real-time station readings, and post-event verification created near-certainty once the 24-hour period closed.
The 99% probability on 15°C indicates skin-in-the-game confidence that the official minimum—likely from INMET or airport networks—settled precisely at that threshold rather than 14°C or 16°C. Minor model spreads or microclimate variations between urban stations could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but consistent reports across sources made such outcomes improbable. Upcoming resolution hinges on the final official daily summary, with no major data revisions expected given the stability of observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$2,475Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
**The market-implied odds strongly favor 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in official observational data.** Early September in the region typically features cooling from the approach of a frontal system, with overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies allowing minimums to dip into the mid-teens Celsius. Multiple meteorological sources, including forecasts from sites tracking Congonhas Airport and regional models, converged on a daily minimum of 15°C (or very close), with daytime highs near 26°C. This alignment between pre-event model runs, real-time station readings, and post-event verification created near-certainty once the 24-hour period closed. The 99% probability on 15°C indicates skin-in-the-game confidence that the official minimum—likely from INMET or airport networks—settled precisely at that threshold rather than 14°C or 16°C. Minor model spreads or microclimate variations between urban stations could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but consistent reports across sources made such outcomes improbable. Upcoming resolution hinges on the final official daily summary, with no major data revisions expected given the stability of observations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen