**Persistent late-summer heat and limited overnight cooling keep Dallas lows tightly clustered around 80–83 °F for August 31.** Official National Weather Service guidance and multiple forecast models project a high near 101–102 °F under mostly clear skies with south to southeast winds of 5–10 mph. These conditions favor strong daytime heating while dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s and light flow restrict radiative cooling after sunset, producing overnight lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. Historical climatology shows an average low near 75 °F, but the current warm anomaly and absence of frontal passages or increased cloud cover support the elevated range. With resolution hinging on the precise minimum recorded at official stations, traders see nearly equal implied probabilities for the 80–81 °F and 82–83 °F bins as the key uncertainty lies in minor variations in wind speed, humidity, and exact timing of the daily minimum. No major model shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours.