Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a daily high of 29°C for Tokyo on August 4, anchoring trader consensus around 27–29°C outcomes with combined implied probability near 80%. Short-range model runs show limited spread due to stable summer synoptic patterns, though modest uncertainty arises from potential afternoon cloud cover, variable sea-breeze timing, and the urban heat island effect that can add 1–2°C locally. Historical August normals near 31–32°C provide context, yet current guidance points to slightly suppressed maxima. Updated ensemble outputs and JMA briefings through August 3 remain the key near-term catalysts likely to refine these odds before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Tokio am 4. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Tokio am 4. August?
28°C 34%
29°C 28%
27°C 19%
30°C 11%
NEU
NEU
4. Aug. 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
7%
27°C
19%
28°C
34%
29°C
28%
30°C
11%
31°C
4%
32°C or higher
3%
28°C 34%
29°C 28%
27°C 19%
30°C 11%
NEU
NEU
4. Aug. 2026
22°C or below
$419 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$409 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$499 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$33 Vol.
2%
26°C
$36 Vol.
7%
27°C
$190 Vol.
19%
28°C
$283 Vol.
34%
29°C
$44 Vol.
28%
30°C
$223 Vol.
11%
31°C
$482 Vol.
4%
32°C or higher
$10 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a daily high of 29°C for Tokyo on August 4, anchoring trader consensus around 27–29°C outcomes with combined implied probability near 80%. Short-range model runs show limited spread due to stable summer synoptic patterns, though modest uncertainty arises from potential afternoon cloud cover, variable sea-breeze timing, and the urban heat island effect that can add 1–2°C locally. Historical August normals near 31–32°C provide context, yet current guidance points to slightly suppressed maxima. Updated ensemble outputs and JMA briefings through August 3 remain the key near-term catalysts likely to refine these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volumen
$2,628Enddatum
4. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a daily high of 29°C for Tokyo on August 4, anchoring trader consensus around 27–29°C outcomes with combined implied probability near 80%. Short-range model runs show limited spread due to stable summer synoptic patterns, though modest uncertainty arises from potential afternoon cloud cover, variable sea-breeze timing, and the urban heat island effect that can add 1–2°C locally. Historical August normals near 31–32°C provide context, yet current guidance points to slightly suppressed maxima. Updated ensemble outputs and JMA briefings through August 3 remain the key near-term catalysts likely to refine these odds before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$2,628Enddatum
4. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project a daily high of 29°C for Tokyo on August 4, anchoring trader consensus around 27–29°C outcomes with combined implied probability near 80%. Short-range model runs show limited spread due to stable summer synoptic patterns, though modest uncertainty arises from potential afternoon cloud cover, variable sea-breeze timing, and the urban heat island effect that can add 1–2°C locally. Historical August normals near 31–32°C provide context, yet current guidance points to slightly suppressed maxima. Updated ensemble outputs and JMA briefings through August 3 remain the key near-term catalysts likely to refine these odds before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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