Recent official forecasts from agencies including AEMET, the Met Office, and BBC Weather converge on a Madrid maximum of 36–38 °C for August 17 under a stable anticyclone featuring clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and strong solar insolation that favors peak heating. This tight model consensus, combined with typical late-summer conditions and minimal expected variability in the final hours, has driven near-certain trader pricing of the 38 °C outcome. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute forecast revisions from unobserved mesoscale effects such as localized cloud development or wind shifts, though current data indicate low probability of deviation outside the narrow band.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 17. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 17. August?
38°C 100.0%
32°C or below <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$87,913 Vol.
$87,913 Vol.
17. Aug. 2026
32°C or below
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
Yes
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C or higher
No
38°C 100.0%
32°C or below <1%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
$87,913 Vol.
$87,913 Vol.
17. Aug. 2026
32°C or below
$1,646 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,041 Vol.
No
34°C
$4,123 Vol.
No
35°C
$3,875 Vol.
No
36°C
$19,636 Vol.
No
37°C
$16,895 Vol.
No
38°C
$20,756 Vol.
Yes
39°C
$12,629 Vol.
No
40°C
$5,289 Vol.
No
41°C
$1,502 Vol.
No
42°C or higher
$522 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies including AEMET, the Met Office, and BBC Weather converge on a Madrid maximum of 36–38 °C for August 17 under a stable anticyclone featuring clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and strong solar insolation that favors peak heating. This tight model consensus, combined with typical late-summer conditions and minimal expected variability in the final hours, has driven near-certain trader pricing of the 38 °C outcome. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute forecast revisions from unobserved mesoscale effects such as localized cloud development or wind shifts, though current data indicate low probability of deviation outside the narrow band.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Volumen
$87,913Enddatum
17. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies including AEMET, the Met Office, and BBC Weather converge on a Madrid maximum of 36–38 °C for August 17 under a stable anticyclone featuring clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and strong solar insolation that favors peak heating. This tight model consensus, combined with typical late-summer conditions and minimal expected variability in the final hours, has driven near-certain trader pricing of the 38 °C outcome. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute forecast revisions from unobserved mesoscale effects such as localized cloud development or wind shifts, though current data indicate low probability of deviation outside the narrow band.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$87,913Enddatum
17. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 15, 2026, 4:06 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
Recent official forecasts from agencies including AEMET, the Met Office, and BBC Weather converge on a Madrid maximum of 36–38 °C for August 17 under a stable anticyclone featuring clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and strong solar insolation that favors peak heating. This tight model consensus, combined with typical late-summer conditions and minimal expected variability in the final hours, has driven near-certain trader pricing of the 38 °C outcome. Realistic challenges remain limited to last-minute forecast revisions from unobserved mesoscale effects such as localized cloud development or wind shifts, though current data indicate low probability of deviation outside the narrow band.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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