Persistent high pressure and clear skies over central Spain position official AEMET guidance near 36°C for Madrid’s maximum on August 19, aligning with the market’s leading 55% implied probability for that threshold. Ensemble forecasts from European models show limited spread around 35–37°C, reflecting typical late-summer anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds that favor daytime heating. Recent AEMET updates confirm no significant cooling advection or instability expected before the observation window, while historical August climatology supports maxima in this range. Traders appear to weigh the tight forecast consensus heavily, with only modest probability assigned to 37°C or 35°C outcomes pending final verification.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 19. August?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 19. August?
36°C 56%
37°C 22%
35°C 20%
34°C 3%
NEU
$15,912 Vol.
NEU
$15,912 Vol.
19. Aug. 2026
32°C or below
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
3%
35°C
20%
36°C
56%
37°C
22%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C
<1%
42°C or higher
<1%
36°C 56%
37°C 22%
35°C 20%
34°C 3%
NEU
$15,912 Vol.
NEU
$15,912 Vol.
19. Aug. 2026
32°C or below
$468 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$1,176 Vol.
1%
34°C
$875 Vol.
3%
35°C
$2,535 Vol.
20%
36°C
$5,307 Vol.
56%
37°C
$3,723 Vol.
22%
38°C
$662 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$696 Vol.
<1%
40°C
$220 Vol.
<1%
41°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
42°C or higher
$125 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and clear skies over central Spain position official AEMET guidance near 36°C for Madrid’s maximum on August 19, aligning with the market’s leading 55% implied probability for that threshold. Ensemble forecasts from European models show limited spread around 35–37°C, reflecting typical late-summer anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds that favor daytime heating. Recent AEMET updates confirm no significant cooling advection or instability expected before the observation window, while historical August climatology supports maxima in this range. Traders appear to weigh the tight forecast consensus heavily, with only modest probability assigned to 37°C or 35°C outcomes pending final verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$15,912Enddatum
19. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent high pressure and clear skies over central Spain position official AEMET guidance near 36°C for Madrid’s maximum on August 19, aligning with the market’s leading 55% implied probability for that threshold. Ensemble forecasts from European models show limited spread around 35–37°C, reflecting typical late-summer anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds that favor daytime heating. Recent AEMET updates confirm no significant cooling advection or instability expected before the observation window, while historical August climatology supports maxima in this range. Traders appear to weigh the tight forecast consensus heavily, with only modest probability assigned to 37°C or 35°C outcomes pending final verification.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$15,912Enddatum
19. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high pressure and clear skies over central Spain position official AEMET guidance near 36°C for Madrid’s maximum on August 19, aligning with the market’s leading 55% implied probability for that threshold. Ensemble forecasts from European models show limited spread around 35–37°C, reflecting typical late-summer anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and light winds that favor daytime heating. Recent AEMET updates confirm no significant cooling advection or instability expected before the observation window, while historical August climatology supports maxima in this range. Traders appear to weigh the tight forecast consensus heavily, with only modest probability assigned to 37°C or 35°C outcomes pending final verification.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen