Recent global seismic activity remains within normal variability according to USGS monitoring, with 11 magnitude 7.0+ events recorded through mid-August 2026 and a strongest event of 7.8 in the Philippines in June. Notable recent developments include a 7.7 quake offshore Indonesia on August 15 and ongoing clusters along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire, consistent with historical patterns rather than anomalous escalation. No magnitude 8.0+ events have occurred year-to-date, aligning with the USGS long-term average of roughly one to two such events annually worldwide. Earthquake occurrence follows tectonic plate interactions with inherent unpredictability; short-term forecasts are not possible, though continuous USGS real-time catalogs and aftershock monitoring provide the authoritative data stream traders track. Over the remaining six weeks to September 30, resolution hinges on whether any new event exceeds prior 2026 maxima, with model consensus and observational updates from agencies like USGS serving as primary signals for market shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie stark wird ein Erdbeben weltweit bis zum 30. September ausfallen?
Wie stark wird ein Erdbeben weltweit bis zum 30. September ausfallen?
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
6,5+
96%
7,0+
81%
7,5+
43%
8,0+
18%
8,5+
4%
9,0+
4%
$2,329 Vol.
6,5+
$100 Vol.
96%
7,0+
$930 Vol.
81%
7,5+
$444 Vol.
43%
8,0+
$856 Vol.
18%
8,5+
$0 Vol.
4%
9,0+
$0 Vol.
4%
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."Recent global seismic activity remains within normal variability according to USGS monitoring, with 11 magnitude 7.0+ events recorded through mid-August 2026 and a strongest event of 7.8 in the Philippines in June. Notable recent developments include a 7.7 quake offshore Indonesia on August 15 and ongoing clusters along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire, consistent with historical patterns rather than anomalous escalation. No magnitude 8.0+ events have occurred year-to-date, aligning with the USGS long-term average of roughly one to two such events annually worldwide. Earthquake occurrence follows tectonic plate interactions with inherent unpredictability; short-term forecasts are not possible, though continuous USGS real-time catalogs and aftershock monitoring provide the authoritative data stream traders track. Over the remaining six weeks to September 30, resolution hinges on whether any new event exceeds prior 2026 maxima, with model consensus and observational updates from agencies like USGS serving as primary signals for market shifts.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ET
Volumen
$2,329Enddatum
3. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."Recent global seismic activity remains within normal variability according to USGS monitoring, with 11 magnitude 7.0+ events recorded through mid-August 2026 and a strongest event of 7.8 in the Philippines in June. Notable recent developments include a 7.7 quake offshore Indonesia on August 15 and ongoing clusters along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire, consistent with historical patterns rather than anomalous escalation. No magnitude 8.0+ events have occurred year-to-date, aligning with the USGS long-term average of roughly one to two such events annually worldwide. Earthquake occurrence follows tectonic plate interactions with inherent unpredictability; short-term forecasts are not possible, though continuous USGS real-time catalogs and aftershock monitoring provide the authoritative data stream traders track. Over the remaining six weeks to September 30, resolution hinges on whether any new event exceeds prior 2026 maxima, with model consensus and observational updates from agencies like USGS serving as primary signals for market shifts.
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying earthquake must be listed by USGS with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title and listed as occurring within the specified timeframe. Earthquakes without a preferred magnitude classification will not qualify.
If an earthquake with an origin time within this market's window has not yet appeared on the resolution source by the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market end date may be extended for up to one week after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET and will resolve based on the first preferred magnitude and timestamp of the event in question. If the relevant data is not released by the end of the extension period, this market will resolve based on the data released up until that point.
Revisions to the underlying data, such as the preferred magnitude, will be considered until the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or until the end of an applicable extension period. Revisions made after the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET or after the end of an applicable extension period will not be considered.
The resolution source for this event is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program earthquake catalog (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/), and only data released by USGS will be considered, regardless of other sources. If the resolution source becomes temporarily unavailable, the market will remain open until it resumes; if it remains unavailable through the end of the third calendar day after September 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
Volumen
$2,329Enddatum
3. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 2:01 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent global seismic activity remains within normal variability according to USGS monitoring, with 11 magnitude 7.0+ events recorded through mid-August 2026 and a strongest event of 7.8 in the Philippines in June. Notable recent developments include a 7.7 quake offshore Indonesia on August 15 and ongoing clusters along subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire, consistent with historical patterns rather than anomalous escalation. No magnitude 8.0+ events have occurred year-to-date, aligning with the USGS long-term average of roughly one to two such events annually worldwide. Earthquake occurrence follows tectonic plate interactions with inherent unpredictability; short-term forecasts are not possible, though continuous USGS real-time catalogs and aftershock monitoring provide the authoritative data stream traders track. Over the remaining six weeks to September 30, resolution hinges on whether any new event exceeds prior 2026 maxima, with model consensus and observational updates from agencies like USGS serving as primary signals for market shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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