Trader consensus around a 99.4% probability against a magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027 reflects the U.S. Geological Survey assessment that such an event is physically impossible. No known fault is long enough to produce it; a magnitude 10 rupture would require a fracture spanning much of the planet's circumference. The historical maximum remains 9.5, recorded in Chile in 1960 on a roughly 1,000-kilometer subduction zone segment. Recent global monitoring through mid-2026 shows peak magnitudes around 7.8, consistent with long-term patterns where events of 8.0 or higher occur infrequently. While measurement revisions or unforeseen multi-segment ruptures represent theoretical edge cases, current seismic data and fault mechanics provide little basis for altering the near-certain outlook ahead of the 2027 threshold.