NASA's February 2026 restructuring of the Artemis program serves as the dominant factor behind the 99.2% market-implied probability against a human lunar landing this year. Officials redesignated Artemis III as a 2027 low-Earth-orbit demonstration mission focused on Orion rendezvous and docking with commercial landers from SpaceX and Blue Origin, shifting the first crewed surface mission to Artemis IV no earlier than early 2028. Successful completion of the Artemis II lunar flyby in April 2026 validated crewed deep-space operations but highlighted ongoing technical and integration challenges that preclude accelerating any landing attempt into the remaining months of 2026. While an unforeseen private-sector breakthrough or rapid policy reversal could theoretically alter timelines, current hardware readiness, regulatory milestones, and supply-chain realities make such outcomes highly improbable before year-end.