Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1°C by mid-July 2026 and forecasts for a very strong event persisting through year-end, combine with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate global temperatures. This setup supports the market-implied odds near 54% for the 1st-hottest outcome and 53% for 2nd-hottest on August 1–3, reflecting high baseline warmth from the developing El Niño and recent monthly rankings (e.g., May 2026 as the second-warmest on record). Daily global temperature rankings remain closely contested because short-term atmospheric variability, regional heat domes, and differences across datasets (NOAA, NASA, Copernicus) can shift exact daily anomalies by fractions of a degree. Traders weigh these uncertainties against the strong seasonal signal favoring top-tier warmth, with new observational releases and model updates expected to refine probabilities as the period unfolds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert1., 2., 3. August 2026 heißester seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen?
1., 2., 3. August 2026 heißester seit Beginn der Aufzeichnungen?
1st hottest 53%
2nd hottest 51%
4th or lower 46%
3rd hottest 23%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
1st hottest
53%
2nd hottest
51%
3rd hottest
23%
4th or lower
46%
1st hottest 53%
2nd hottest 51%
4th or lower 46%
3rd hottest 23%
NEU
NEU
31. Aug. 2026
1st hottest
$1 Vol.
53%
2nd hottest
$1 Vol.
51%
3rd hottest
$36 Vol.
23%
4th or lower
$35 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1°C by mid-July 2026 and forecasts for a very strong event persisting through year-end, combine with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate global temperatures. This setup supports the market-implied odds near 54% for the 1st-hottest outcome and 53% for 2nd-hottest on August 1–3, reflecting high baseline warmth from the developing El Niño and recent monthly rankings (e.g., May 2026 as the second-warmest on record). Daily global temperature rankings remain closely contested because short-term atmospheric variability, regional heat domes, and differences across datasets (NOAA, NASA, Copernicus) can shift exact daily anomalies by fractions of a degree. Traders weigh these uncertainties against the strong seasonal signal favoring top-tier warmth, with new observational releases and model updates expected to refine probabilities as the period unfolds.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Volumen
$73Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1°C by mid-July 2026 and forecasts for a very strong event persisting through year-end, combine with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate global temperatures. This setup supports the market-implied odds near 54% for the 1st-hottest outcome and 53% for 2nd-hottest on August 1–3, reflecting high baseline warmth from the developing El Niño and recent monthly rankings (e.g., May 2026 as the second-warmest on record). Daily global temperature rankings remain closely contested because short-term atmospheric variability, regional heat domes, and differences across datasets (NOAA, NASA, Copernicus) can shift exact daily anomalies by fractions of a degree. Traders weigh these uncertainties against the strong seasonal signal favoring top-tier warmth, with new observational releases and model updates expected to refine probabilities as the period unfolds.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 versus the data points available for all other Augusts on record.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If August 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by September 30, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volumen
$73Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies reaching +2.1°C by mid-July 2026 and forecasts for a very strong event persisting through year-end, combine with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to elevate global temperatures. This setup supports the market-implied odds near 54% for the 1st-hottest outcome and 53% for 2nd-hottest on August 1–3, reflecting high baseline warmth from the developing El Niño and recent monthly rankings (e.g., May 2026 as the second-warmest on record). Daily global temperature rankings remain closely contested because short-term atmospheric variability, regional heat domes, and differences across datasets (NOAA, NASA, Copernicus) can shift exact daily anomalies by fractions of a degree. Traders weigh these uncertainties against the strong seasonal signal favoring top-tier warmth, with new observational releases and model updates expected to refine probabilities as the period unfolds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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