Persistent warm sea surface temperatures lingering after the 2023–2025 El Niño, alongside the underlying anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade, underpin the market’s clustering around 1.25–1.29 °C and >1.29 °C outcomes for August 2026. Latest NOAA and ECMWF model runs indicate limited cooling from a possible weak La Niña transition, while Arctic amplification and reduced aerosol forcing add upward pressure. Short-term variability in tropical convection and Indian Ocean dipole strength introduces genuine forecast spread, with resolution depending on final global mean estimates from agencies such as NASA GISS and Copernicus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertAugust 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)
August 2026 Temperaturerhöhung (ºC)
>1,29ºC 43%
1,25–1,29ºC 34%
1,20–1,24ºC 21%
1,15–1,19ºC 8%
NEU
NEU
1. Aug. 2026
<1,10ºC
4%
1,10–1,14ºC
2%
1,15–1,19ºC
8%
1,20–1,24ºC
21%
1,25–1,29ºC
34%
>1,29ºC
43%
>1,29ºC 43%
1,25–1,29ºC 34%
1,20–1,24ºC 21%
1,15–1,19ºC 8%
NEU
NEU
1. Aug. 2026
<1,10ºC
$344 Vol.
4%
1,10–1,14ºC
$396 Vol.
2%
1,15–1,19ºC
$333 Vol.
8%
1,20–1,24ºC
$82 Vol.
21%
1,25–1,29ºC
$201 Vol.
34%
>1,29ºC
$255 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Persistent warm sea surface temperatures lingering after the 2023–2025 El Niño, alongside the underlying anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade, underpin the market’s clustering around 1.25–1.29 °C and >1.29 °C outcomes for August 2026. Latest NOAA and ECMWF model runs indicate limited cooling from a possible weak La Niña transition, while Arctic amplification and reduced aerosol forcing add upward pressure. Short-term variability in tropical convection and Indian Ocean dipole strength introduces genuine forecast spread, with resolution depending on final global mean estimates from agencies such as NASA GISS and Copernicus.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Volumen
$1,611Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Persistent warm sea surface temperatures lingering after the 2023–2025 El Niño, alongside the underlying anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade, underpin the market’s clustering around 1.25–1.29 °C and >1.29 °C outcomes for August 2026. Latest NOAA and ECMWF model runs indicate limited cooling from a possible weak La Niña transition, while Arctic amplification and reduced aerosol forcing add upward pressure. Short-term variability in tropical convection and Indian Ocean dipole strength introduces genuine forecast spread, with resolution depending on final global mean estimates from agencies such as NASA GISS and Copernicus.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volumen
$1,611Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent warm sea surface temperatures lingering after the 2023–2025 El Niño, alongside the underlying anthropogenic trend of roughly 0.2 °C per decade, underpin the market’s clustering around 1.25–1.29 °C and >1.29 °C outcomes for August 2026. Latest NOAA and ECMWF model runs indicate limited cooling from a possible weak La Niña transition, while Arctic amplification and reduced aerosol forcing add upward pressure. Short-term variability in tropical convection and Indian Ocean dipole strength introduces genuine forecast spread, with resolution depending on final global mean estimates from agencies such as NASA GISS and Copernicus.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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