Traders assign an 89% implied probability to “No” for a major meteor strike of 10 kilotons or greater in 2026 primarily because no such energetic event has occurred through mid-August and NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids posing significant impact risk over the next century. Smaller fireballs recorded this year, including the March 17 Cleveland-area object of roughly seven tons and a Houston-area fragment releasing only tens of tons TNT equivalent, underscore that detectable near-Earth objects remain well below the 10 kt threshold. Continuous orbital monitoring by NASA and ESA, combined with the historical rarity of 10 kt-plus airbursts or ground strikes, reinforces market consensus that the remaining months of 2026 are unlikely to produce a qualifying impact absent an undetected object.