Elevated inflation and resilient labor market conditions underpin the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting, with a 24.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike as the next most likely outcome. PCE inflation remains above the 2% target at 3.7% year-over-year through July 2026, while core measures show only gradual moderation amid energy and supply shocks. August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 exceeded expectations, holding the unemployment rate at a low 4.1%. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.5–3.75% since early 2026, traders see limited scope for easing and price in potential further tightening if price pressures persist into year-end. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases will provide key updates to these probabilities.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNo change 61%
25 bps increase 25%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
$62,398 Vol.
$62,398 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
4%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
61%
25 bps increase
25%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 61%
25 bps increase 25%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 3.5%
$62,398 Vol.
$62,398 Vol.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$13,099 Vol.
4%
25 bps decrease
$11,874 Vol.
14%
No change
$19,062 Vol.
61%
25 bps increase
$15,847 Vol.
25%
50+ bps increase
$2,515 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation and resilient labor market conditions underpin the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting, with a 24.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike as the next most likely outcome. PCE inflation remains above the 2% target at 3.7% year-over-year through July 2026, while core measures show only gradual moderation amid energy and supply shocks. August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 exceeded expectations, holding the unemployment rate at a low 4.1%. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.5–3.75% since early 2026, traders see limited scope for easing and price in potential further tightening if price pressures persist into year-end. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases will provide key updates to these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
ভলিউম
$62,398শেষ তারিখ
Jan 27, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation and resilient labor market conditions underpin the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting, with a 24.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike as the next most likely outcome. PCE inflation remains above the 2% target at 3.7% year-over-year through July 2026, while core measures show only gradual moderation amid energy and supply shocks. August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 exceeded expectations, holding the unemployment rate at a low 4.1%. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.5–3.75% since early 2026, traders see limited scope for easing and price in potential further tightening if price pressures persist into year-end. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases will provide key updates to these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ভলিউম
$62,398শেষ তারিখ
Jan 27, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation and resilient labor market conditions underpin the 60.5% market-implied probability of no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting, with a 24.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike as the next most likely outcome. PCE inflation remains above the 2% target at 3.7% year-over-year through July 2026, while core measures show only gradual moderation amid energy and supply shocks. August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 exceeded expectations, holding the unemployment rate at a low 4.1%. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.5–3.75% since early 2026, traders see limited scope for easing and price in potential further tightening if price pressures persist into year-end. The September 15–16 FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases will provide key updates to these probabilities.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা