Recent U.S. labor market resilience, with August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside persistent inflation pressures has sustained uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path through year-end. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections revised the median year-end federal funds rate upward to 3.8%, reflecting a hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh and nine participants favoring at least one hike by December. This backdrop fragments trader consensus across rate sequences for the September, October/November, and December FOMC meetings, where no single path exceeds 30% probability. Incoming September CPI and PCE releases, plus the September 15-16 FOMC decision, will likely clarify whether data-dependent tightening risks or a sustained pause prevail.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডPause–Pause–Pause 28%
Hike–Pause–Pause 19%
Pause–Pause–Hike 12%
Pause–Hike–Hike 12%
$10,897 Vol.
$10,897 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
19%
Hike–Hike–Hike
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
6%
Pause–Pause–Hike
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause
28%
Pause–Hike–Hike
12%
Pause–Hike–Pause
10%
Other
5%
Pause–Pause–Pause 28%
Hike–Pause–Pause 19%
Pause–Pause–Hike 12%
Pause–Hike–Hike 12%
$10,897 Vol.
$10,897 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
Hike–Pause–Hike
$314 Vol.
11%
Hike–Pause–Pause
$296 Vol.
19%
Hike–Hike–Hike
$216 Vol.
5%
Hike–Hike–Pause
$237 Vol.
6%
Pause–Pause–Hike
$253 Vol.
12%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$8,928 Vol.
28%
Pause–Hike–Hike
$237 Vol.
12%
Pause–Hike–Pause
$214 Vol.
10%
Other
$203 Vol.
5%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. labor market resilience, with August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside persistent inflation pressures has sustained uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path through year-end. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections revised the median year-end federal funds rate upward to 3.8%, reflecting a hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh and nine participants favoring at least one hike by December. This backdrop fragments trader consensus across rate sequences for the September, October/November, and December FOMC meetings, where no single path exceeds 30% probability. Incoming September CPI and PCE releases, plus the September 15-16 FOMC decision, will likely clarify whether data-dependent tightening risks or a sustained pause prevail.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
ভলিউম
$10,897শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. labor market resilience, with August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside persistent inflation pressures has sustained uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path through year-end. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections revised the median year-end federal funds rate upward to 3.8%, reflecting a hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh and nine participants favoring at least one hike by December. This backdrop fragments trader consensus across rate sequences for the September, October/November, and December FOMC meetings, where no single path exceeds 30% probability. Incoming September CPI and PCE releases, plus the September 15-16 FOMC decision, will likely clarify whether data-dependent tightening risks or a sustained pause prevail.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
ভলিউম
$10,897শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. labor market resilience, with August nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside persistent inflation pressures has sustained uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path through year-end. The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections revised the median year-end federal funds rate upward to 3.8%, reflecting a hawkish tilt under Chair Kevin Warsh and nine participants favoring at least one hike by December. This backdrop fragments trader consensus across rate sequences for the September, October/November, and December FOMC meetings, where no single path exceeds 30% probability. Incoming September CPI and PCE releases, plus the September 15-16 FOMC decision, will likely clarify whether data-dependent tightening risks or a sustained pause prevail.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা