Recent July 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% has reinforced trader consensus around a 71.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, following the Fed's July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target. Elevated inflation relative to the 2% goal and lingering Middle East supply pressures continue to support a 23.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, consistent with the 9-3 July vote and dot-plot signals favoring higher rates by year-end. Softening labor market readings and upcoming September employment and inflation releases remain key swing factors that could shift the market-implied path before the October decision.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 72%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 4.8%
50+ bps decrease 1.4%
$662,787 Vol.
$662,787 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
72%
25 bps increase
24%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 72%
25 bps increase 24%
25 bps decrease 4.8%
50+ bps decrease 1.4%
$662,787 Vol.
$662,787 Vol.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$126,880 Vol.
1%
25 bps decrease
$202,394 Vol.
5%
No change
$140,077 Vol.
72%
25 bps increase
$135,751 Vol.
24%
50+ bps increase
$57,685 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% has reinforced trader consensus around a 71.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, following the Fed's July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target. Elevated inflation relative to the 2% goal and lingering Middle East supply pressures continue to support a 23.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, consistent with the 9-3 July vote and dot-plot signals favoring higher rates by year-end. Softening labor market readings and upcoming September employment and inflation releases remain key swing factors that could shift the market-implied path before the October decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
ভলিউম
$662,787শেষ তারিখ
Oct 28, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent July 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% has reinforced trader consensus around a 71.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, following the Fed's July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target. Elevated inflation relative to the 2% goal and lingering Middle East supply pressures continue to support a 23.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, consistent with the 9-3 July vote and dot-plot signals favoring higher rates by year-end. Softening labor market readings and upcoming September employment and inflation releases remain key swing factors that could shift the market-implied path before the October decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ভলিউম
$662,787শেষ তারিখ
Oct 28, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent July 2026 CPI data showing headline inflation easing to 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% has reinforced trader consensus around a 71.5% implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting, following the Fed's July hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target. Elevated inflation relative to the 2% goal and lingering Middle East supply pressures continue to support a 23.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, consistent with the 9-3 July vote and dot-plot signals favoring higher rates by year-end. Softening labor market readings and upcoming September employment and inflation releases remain key swing factors that could shift the market-implied path before the October decision.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা