**The Bank of Russia’s September 11, 2026, decision to hold its key rate at 14% for the first time since mid-2025 has anchored trader expectations for the October 23 meeting.** Persistent price pressures—driven by supply disruptions in motor fuel from Ukrainian strikes on refineries, higher transportation costs, and second-round effects—pushed underlying inflation to a 5–6% annualized pace. The central bank described these as largely one-off but emphasized that monetary policy must prevent them from becoming entrenched, while noting moderate Q3 economic growth and restrained demand. Fiscal risks from state spending and the upcoming budget further support a cautious stance, with Governor Elvira Nabiullina and officials signaling that pro-inflationary factors now outweigh disinflationary ones in the near term. Markets price a slim chance of an increase, reflecting the bank’s baseline forecast of 6–7% inflation for 2026 and a return to the 4% target only in 2027. A cut remains plausible if incoming data shows faster cooling, but the recent pause and emphasis on data-dependence have lifted the implied probability of no change to the leading outcome. The October decision will hinge on inflation prints, inflation expectations, and any signals from the September 23 summary of key-rate discussions.