Trump’s recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026 underpins the 94.2% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs this year. Legal safeguards around Federal Reserve independence, reinforced by recent Supreme Court rulings, raise high barriers to removal, while Trump has continued to describe Warsh positively even amid public pressure for lower rates. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, strong August jobs data, and Warsh’s signals favoring tighter policy if needed have created friction but not yet escalated to termination threats. Traders weigh these institutional and political frictions against the risk that sustained rate-hike resistance could test the relationship before November midterms.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড6% সম্ভাবনা
$14,169 Vol.
$14,169 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
6% সম্ভাবনা
$14,169 Vol.
$14,169 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026 underpins the 94.2% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs this year. Legal safeguards around Federal Reserve independence, reinforced by recent Supreme Court rulings, raise high barriers to removal, while Trump has continued to describe Warsh positively even amid public pressure for lower rates. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, strong August jobs data, and Warsh’s signals favoring tighter policy if needed have created friction but not yet escalated to termination threats. Traders weigh these institutional and political frictions against the risk that sustained rate-hike resistance could test the relationship before November midterms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
ভলিউম
$14,169শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026 underpins the 94.2% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs this year. Legal safeguards around Federal Reserve independence, reinforced by recent Supreme Court rulings, raise high barriers to removal, while Trump has continued to describe Warsh positively even amid public pressure for lower rates. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, strong August jobs data, and Warsh’s signals favoring tighter policy if needed have created friction but not yet escalated to termination threats. Traders weigh these institutional and political frictions against the risk that sustained rate-hike resistance could test the relationship before November midterms.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$14,169শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...Trump’s recent appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026 underpins the 94.2% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs this year. Legal safeguards around Federal Reserve independence, reinforced by recent Supreme Court rulings, raise high barriers to removal, while Trump has continued to describe Warsh positively even amid public pressure for lower rates. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, strong August jobs data, and Warsh’s signals favoring tighter policy if needed have created friction but not yet escalated to termination threats. Traders weigh these institutional and political frictions against the risk that sustained rate-hike resistance could test the relationship before November midterms.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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