The closely balanced 51.5% market-implied probability of no Fed rate hike in 2026 reflects offsetting pressures from persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient economy. The federal funds rate has remained in the 3.50–3.75% range since December 2025, with the effective rate near 3.63% as of mid-August. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core CPI eased to 2.5%, yet supply shocks and elevated readings over multiple years prompted a hawkish June dot plot showing a 3.8% median end-2026 projection and three dissents favoring a hike at the July FOMC. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability has reinforced expectations of possible tightening, tempered by softer recent inflation prints and solid but non-accelerating growth. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and employment data represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path and trader consensus.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডহ্যাঁ
49% সম্ভাবনা
$7,597,045 Vol.
$7,597,045 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
হ্যাঁ
49% সম্ভাবনা
$7,597,045 Vol.
$7,597,045 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely balanced 51.5% market-implied probability of no Fed rate hike in 2026 reflects offsetting pressures from persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient economy. The federal funds rate has remained in the 3.50–3.75% range since December 2025, with the effective rate near 3.63% as of mid-August. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core CPI eased to 2.5%, yet supply shocks and elevated readings over multiple years prompted a hawkish June dot plot showing a 3.8% median end-2026 projection and three dissents favoring a hike at the July FOMC. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability has reinforced expectations of possible tightening, tempered by softer recent inflation prints and solid but non-accelerating growth. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and employment data represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path and trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
ভলিউম
$7,597,045শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely balanced 51.5% market-implied probability of no Fed rate hike in 2026 reflects offsetting pressures from persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient economy. The federal funds rate has remained in the 3.50–3.75% range since December 2025, with the effective rate near 3.63% as of mid-August. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core CPI eased to 2.5%, yet supply shocks and elevated readings over multiple years prompted a hawkish June dot plot showing a 3.8% median end-2026 projection and three dissents favoring a hike at the July FOMC. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability has reinforced expectations of possible tightening, tempered by softer recent inflation prints and solid but non-accelerating growth. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and employment data represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path and trader consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ভলিউম
$7,597,045শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely balanced 51.5% market-implied probability of no Fed rate hike in 2026 reflects offsetting pressures from persistent inflation above the 2% target and a resilient economy. The federal funds rate has remained in the 3.50–3.75% range since December 2025, with the effective rate near 3.63% as of mid-August. July CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year while core CPI eased to 2.5%, yet supply shocks and elevated readings over multiple years prompted a hawkish June dot plot showing a 3.8% median end-2026 projection and three dissents favoring a hike at the July FOMC. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on price stability has reinforced expectations of possible tightening, tempered by softer recent inflation prints and solid but non-accelerating growth. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI and employment data represent key near-term catalysts that could shift the rate path and trader consensus.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা