The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% amid a monthly rise of 14 basis points, remains elevated due to sticky inflation pressures, heightened geopolitical risks in energy markets, and heavy Treasury and corporate debt supply. Persistent core PCE readings above 3% and concerns over fiscal deficits have pushed term premiums higher, limiting downside moves despite prior Fed easing. Market-implied odds for significant further declines before 2027 hinge on incoming CPI and employment data, upcoming FOMC communications on the policy rate path, and any moderation in issuance or risk appetite. Stronger growth or renewed supply could anchor yields above 4%, while cooler inflation readings might support a test of lower levels seen earlier in 2026.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$225,341 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3.9%
12%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
2%
3.0%
2%
2.0%
5%
1.0%
2%
$225,341 Vol.
3.9%
$44,197 Vol.
12%
3.8%
$41,312 Vol.
5%
3.7%
$27,383 Vol.
2%
3.6%
$5,587 Vol.
5%
3.5%
$33,052 Vol.
2%
3.0%
$917 Vol.
2%
2.0%
$564 Vol.
5%
1.0%
$40,570 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% amid a monthly rise of 14 basis points, remains elevated due to sticky inflation pressures, heightened geopolitical risks in energy markets, and heavy Treasury and corporate debt supply. Persistent core PCE readings above 3% and concerns over fiscal deficits have pushed term premiums higher, limiting downside moves despite prior Fed easing. Market-implied odds for significant further declines before 2027 hinge on incoming CPI and employment data, upcoming FOMC communications on the policy rate path, and any moderation in issuance or risk appetite. Stronger growth or renewed supply could anchor yields above 4%, while cooler inflation readings might support a test of lower levels seen earlier in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
ভলিউম
$225,341শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% amid a monthly rise of 14 basis points, remains elevated due to sticky inflation pressures, heightened geopolitical risks in energy markets, and heavy Treasury and corporate debt supply. Persistent core PCE readings above 3% and concerns over fiscal deficits have pushed term premiums higher, limiting downside moves despite prior Fed easing. Market-implied odds for significant further declines before 2027 hinge on incoming CPI and employment data, upcoming FOMC communications on the policy rate path, and any moderation in issuance or risk appetite. Stronger growth or renewed supply could anchor yields above 4%, while cooler inflation readings might support a test of lower levels seen earlier in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
ভলিউম
$225,341শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.73% amid a monthly rise of 14 basis points, remains elevated due to sticky inflation pressures, heightened geopolitical risks in energy markets, and heavy Treasury and corporate debt supply. Persistent core PCE readings above 3% and concerns over fiscal deficits have pushed term premiums higher, limiting downside moves despite prior Fed easing. Market-implied odds for significant further declines before 2027 hinge on incoming CPI and employment data, upcoming FOMC communications on the policy rate path, and any moderation in issuance or risk appetite. Stronger growth or renewed supply could anchor yields above 4%, while cooler inflation readings might support a test of lower levels seen earlier in 2026.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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