Traders assign Anthropic a dominant 77.5% implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of October, driven by its recent large language model advancements, consistent benchmark leadership in reasoning and safety evaluations, and competitive edge over rivals. OpenAI trails at 12.2% while Google sits at 9%, reflecting perceptions of slower recent progress or shifts in model capabilities among those labs. The broad field of companies at 50% highlights uncertainty in a fast-moving sector where new releases, developer adoption, and third-party evaluations can quickly alter positioning ahead of resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include further model updates and capability demonstrations expected in the coming weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 78%
OpenAI 12.2%
Google 8.6%
Meta 1.4%
$187,779 交易量
$187,779 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
78%
OpenAI
12%
9%
Meta
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 78%
OpenAI 12.2%
Google 8.6%
Meta 1.4%
$187,779 交易量
$187,779 交易量
2026-10-31
Anthropic
$33,524 交易量
78%
OpenAI
$16,906 交易量
12%
$16,229 交易量
9%
Meta
$15,418 交易量
1%
SpaceXAI
$12,395 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$14,767 交易量
1%
Alibaba
$10,962 交易量
1%
Moonshot
$12,228 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$14,452 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$9,437 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$8,886 交易量
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,471 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$2,066 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$7,360 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$925 交易量
<1%
MiniMax
$1,262 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$1,800 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$4,875 交易量
<1%
Tencent
$949 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$540 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$1,327 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Anthropic a dominant 77.5% implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of October, driven by its recent large language model advancements, consistent benchmark leadership in reasoning and safety evaluations, and competitive edge over rivals. OpenAI trails at 12.2% while Google sits at 9%, reflecting perceptions of slower recent progress or shifts in model capabilities among those labs. The broad field of companies at 50% highlights uncertainty in a fast-moving sector where new releases, developer adoption, and third-party evaluations can quickly alter positioning ahead of resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include further model updates and capability demonstrations expected in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ET
交易量
$187,779结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Anthropic a dominant 77.5% implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of October, driven by its recent large language model advancements, consistent benchmark leadership in reasoning and safety evaluations, and competitive edge over rivals. OpenAI trails at 12.2% while Google sits at 9%, reflecting perceptions of slower recent progress or shifts in model capabilities among those labs. The broad field of companies at 50% highlights uncertainty in a fast-moving sector where new releases, developer adoption, and third-party evaluations can quickly alter positioning ahead of resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include further model updates and capability demonstrations expected in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$187,779结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 8:01 PM ETTraders assign Anthropic a dominant 77.5% implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of October, driven by its recent large language model advancements, consistent benchmark leadership in reasoning and safety evaluations, and competitive edge over rivals. OpenAI trails at 12.2% while Google sits at 9%, reflecting perceptions of slower recent progress or shifts in model capabilities among those labs. The broad field of companies at 50% highlights uncertainty in a fast-moving sector where new releases, developer adoption, and third-party evaluations can quickly alter positioning ahead of resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include further model updates and capability demonstrations expected in the coming weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题