**Forecast consensus from official meteorological guidance supports the market's strong 93% implied probability on a 23°C low for Chengdu on August 30, 2026.** Late-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin, including light winds, high humidity, and limited overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover, have produced minimum temperatures stabilizing near this level in recent model runs and observations. Multiple forecasts converge on nighttime lows of 22–24°C, consistent with climatological norms for the date and the absence of strong cold-air advection or clear-sky extremes. Traders have priced in this outcome heavily because deviations would require atypical shifts such as denser low-level cloud decks raising the minimum or unexpectedly clear skies allowing further cooling below 22°C. Updated observations through the evening and any final China Meteorological Administration adjustments remain the key variables that could still influence resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月30日成都最低气温？
8月30日成都最低气温？
23°C 96%
21°C 12%
22°C 5%
20°C 2%
$2,269 交易量
$2,269 交易量
2026-08-30
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
2%
21°C
12%
22°C
5%
23°C
96%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 96%
21°C 12%
22°C 5%
20°C 2%
$2,269 交易量
$2,269 交易量
2026-08-30
18°C or below
$195 交易量
<1%
19°C
$246 交易量
<1%
20°C
$39 交易量
2%
21°C
$34 交易量
12%
22°C
$44 交易量
5%
23°C
$106 交易量
96%
24°C
$305 交易量
<1%
25°C
$382 交易量
<1%
26°C
$187 交易量
<1%
27°C
$310 交易量
<1%
28°C or higher
$420 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from official meteorological guidance supports the market's strong 93% implied probability on a 23°C low for Chengdu on August 30, 2026.** Late-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin, including light winds, high humidity, and limited overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover, have produced minimum temperatures stabilizing near this level in recent model runs and observations. Multiple forecasts converge on nighttime lows of 22–24°C, consistent with climatological norms for the date and the absence of strong cold-air advection or clear-sky extremes. Traders have priced in this outcome heavily because deviations would require atypical shifts such as denser low-level cloud decks raising the minimum or unexpectedly clear skies allowing further cooling below 22°C. Updated observations through the evening and any final China Meteorological Administration adjustments remain the key variables that could still influence resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,269结束日期
2026-08-30市场开放时间
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from official meteorological guidance supports the market's strong 93% implied probability on a 23°C low for Chengdu on August 30, 2026.** Late-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin, including light winds, high humidity, and limited overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover, have produced minimum temperatures stabilizing near this level in recent model runs and observations. Multiple forecasts converge on nighttime lows of 22–24°C, consistent with climatological norms for the date and the absence of strong cold-air advection or clear-sky extremes. Traders have priced in this outcome heavily because deviations would require atypical shifts such as denser low-level cloud decks raising the minimum or unexpectedly clear skies allowing further cooling below 22°C. Updated observations through the evening and any final China Meteorological Administration adjustments remain the key variables that could still influence resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,269结束日期
2026-08-30市场开放时间
Aug 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Forecast consensus from official meteorological guidance supports the market's strong 93% implied probability on a 23°C low for Chengdu on August 30, 2026.** Late-summer conditions in the Sichuan Basin, including light winds, high humidity, and limited overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover, have produced minimum temperatures stabilizing near this level in recent model runs and observations. Multiple forecasts converge on nighttime lows of 22–24°C, consistent with climatological norms for the date and the absence of strong cold-air advection or clear-sky extremes. Traders have priced in this outcome heavily because deviations would require atypical shifts such as denser low-level cloud decks raising the minimum or unexpectedly clear skies allowing further cooling below 22°C. Updated observations through the evening and any final China Meteorological Administration adjustments remain the key variables that could still influence resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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