Recent polls released in early September 2026 place Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter in late August, between roughly 2.1% and 4% of the vote, straddling Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Multiple surveys show the party either failing to qualify or securing four seats, with support drawn primarily from other right-wing lists amid a fragmented bloc. Candidate-list finalization and ongoing volatility in voter intentions have kept probabilities tightly clustered around the threshold brackets. Modest shifts in turnout among religious or nationalist voters or further consolidation within the right could push the party decisively above or below the line before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于5%+ 29%
少于2.5% 28%
4-5% 25%
2.5-3.25% 24%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
少于2.5%
43%
2.5-3.25%
24%
3.25-4%
24%
4-5%
25%
5%+
29%
5%+ 29%
少于2.5% 28%
4-5% 25%
2.5-3.25% 24%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
少于2.5%
$20 交易量
43%
2.5-3.25%
$0 交易量
24%
3.25-4%
$0 交易量
24%
4-5%
$0 交易量
25%
5%+
$0 交易量
29%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls released in early September 2026 place Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter in late August, between roughly 2.1% and 4% of the vote, straddling Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Multiple surveys show the party either failing to qualify or securing four seats, with support drawn primarily from other right-wing lists amid a fragmented bloc. Candidate-list finalization and ongoing volatility in voter intentions have kept probabilities tightly clustered around the threshold brackets. Modest shifts in turnout among religious or nationalist voters or further consolidation within the right could push the party decisively above or below the line before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
市场开放时间： Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
交易量
$20结束日期
2026-11-30市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls released in early September 2026 place Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter in late August, between roughly 2.1% and 4% of the vote, straddling Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Multiple surveys show the party either failing to qualify or securing four seats, with support drawn primarily from other right-wing lists amid a fragmented bloc. Candidate-list finalization and ongoing volatility in voter intentions have kept probabilities tightly clustered around the threshold brackets. Modest shifts in turnout among religious or nationalist voters or further consolidation within the right could push the party decisively above or below the line before election day.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Amcha Yisrael party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Amcha Yisrael's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Amcha Yisrael passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Amcha Yisrael contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Amcha Yisrael merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
交易量
$20结束日期
2026-11-30市场开放时间
Sep 8, 2026, 4:26 PM ETRecent polls released in early September 2026 place Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party launched by former IDF Brig. Gen. Ofer Winter in late August, between roughly 2.1% and 4% of the vote, straddling Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. Multiple surveys show the party either failing to qualify or securing four seats, with support drawn primarily from other right-wing lists amid a fragmented bloc. Candidate-list finalization and ongoing volatility in voter intentions have kept probabilities tightly clustered around the threshold brackets. Modest shifts in turnout among religious or nationalist voters or further consolidation within the right could push the party decisively above or below the line before election day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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