**Recent meteorological forecasts from major agencies indicate daytime highs in Warsaw of 24–26°C on August 9, aligning closely with the market's leading outcomes at 25°C (46.5%) and 26°C (28.5%).** Ensemble model runs from sources such as the ECMWF and GFS, along with guidance from the UK Met Office and BBC Weather, converge on scattered clouds and light winds under a stable summer pattern, limiting both strong warming and significant cooling. Historical August climatology for Warsaw shows average maxima near 23–25°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to this narrow band rather than extremes. Minor model spreads—some runs peaking at 24°C while others reach 26–27°C—explain the secondary weighting on 24°C (17.5%) and the sharp drop-off beyond 27°C. With resolution occurring the following day, updated short-range forecasts and observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will be the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in these market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于华沙8月9日最高气温？
华沙8月9日最高气温？
25°C 47%
26°C 28%
24°C 17%
27°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
21°C or below
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
17%
25°C
47%
26°C
28%
27°C
4%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 47%
26°C 28%
24°C 17%
27°C 4%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
21°C or below
$460 交易量
1%
22°C
$762 交易量
1%
23°C
$247 交易量
3%
24°C
$1,135 交易量
17%
25°C
$960 交易量
47%
26°C
$556 交易量
28%
27°C
$369 交易量
4%
28°C
$470 交易量
2%
29°C
$238 交易量
1%
30°C
$295 交易量
<1%
31°C or higher
$426 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent meteorological forecasts from major agencies indicate daytime highs in Warsaw of 24–26°C on August 9, aligning closely with the market's leading outcomes at 25°C (46.5%) and 26°C (28.5%).** Ensemble model runs from sources such as the ECMWF and GFS, along with guidance from the UK Met Office and BBC Weather, converge on scattered clouds and light winds under a stable summer pattern, limiting both strong warming and significant cooling. Historical August climatology for Warsaw shows average maxima near 23–25°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to this narrow band rather than extremes. Minor model spreads—some runs peaking at 24°C while others reach 26–27°C—explain the secondary weighting on 24°C (17.5%) and the sharp drop-off beyond 27°C. With resolution occurring the following day, updated short-range forecasts and observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will be the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$5,917结束日期
2026-08-09市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent meteorological forecasts from major agencies indicate daytime highs in Warsaw of 24–26°C on August 9, aligning closely with the market's leading outcomes at 25°C (46.5%) and 26°C (28.5%).** Ensemble model runs from sources such as the ECMWF and GFS, along with guidance from the UK Met Office and BBC Weather, converge on scattered clouds and light winds under a stable summer pattern, limiting both strong warming and significant cooling. Historical August climatology for Warsaw shows average maxima near 23–25°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to this narrow band rather than extremes. Minor model spreads—some runs peaking at 24°C while others reach 26–27°C—explain the secondary weighting on 24°C (17.5%) and the sharp drop-off beyond 27°C. With resolution occurring the following day, updated short-range forecasts and observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will be the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$5,917结束日期
2026-08-09市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 12:03 AM ET**Recent meteorological forecasts from major agencies indicate daytime highs in Warsaw of 24–26°C on August 9, aligning closely with the market's leading outcomes at 25°C (46.5%) and 26°C (28.5%).** Ensemble model runs from sources such as the ECMWF and GFS, along with guidance from the UK Met Office and BBC Weather, converge on scattered clouds and light winds under a stable summer pattern, limiting both strong warming and significant cooling. Historical August climatology for Warsaw shows average maxima near 23–25°C, providing context for why traders assign the highest implied probabilities to this narrow band rather than extremes. Minor model spreads—some runs peaking at 24°C while others reach 26–27°C—explain the secondary weighting on 24°C (17.5%) and the sharp drop-off beyond 27°C. With resolution occurring the following day, updated short-range forecasts and observational data from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management will be the primary near-term catalysts for any shifts in these market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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