Recent GFS and ensemble model runs indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on August 24 most likely near 18–20°C, driven by westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air and increasing cloud cover with a 40–50% chance of showers that will limit daytime heating. This follows a period of cooling after mid-August warmth, aligning closely with the market’s tight clustering on 19°C (34%) and 20°C (39.5%) outcomes. Historical late-August averages near 23–25°C provide context, but the current synoptic pattern favors lower values. Model spread and the precise timing of any precipitation introduce the main uncertainty, with updated forecasts expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月24日华沙的最高温度？
8月24日华沙的最高温度？
19°C 38%
20°C 35%
18°C 10%
21°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
15°C或以下
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
3%
18°C
10%
19°C
38%
20°C
35%
21°C
8%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C或更高
<1%
19°C 38%
20°C 35%
18°C 10%
21°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
15°C或以下
$135 交易量
<1%
16°C
$85 交易量
1%
17°C
$85 交易量
3%
18°C
$372 交易量
10%
19°C
$254 交易量
38%
20°C
$1,318 交易量
35%
21°C
$405 交易量
8%
22°C
$91 交易量
2%
23°C
$138 交易量
1%
24°C
$145 交易量
1%
25°C或更高
$289 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and ensemble model runs indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on August 24 most likely near 18–20°C, driven by westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air and increasing cloud cover with a 40–50% chance of showers that will limit daytime heating. This follows a period of cooling after mid-August warmth, aligning closely with the market’s tight clustering on 19°C (34%) and 20°C (39.5%) outcomes. Historical late-August averages near 23–25°C provide context, but the current synoptic pattern favors lower values. Model spread and the precise timing of any precipitation introduce the main uncertainty, with updated forecasts expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ET
交易量
$3,318结束日期
2026-08-24市场开放时间
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent GFS and ensemble model runs indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on August 24 most likely near 18–20°C, driven by westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air and increasing cloud cover with a 40–50% chance of showers that will limit daytime heating. This follows a period of cooling after mid-August warmth, aligning closely with the market’s tight clustering on 19°C (34%) and 20°C (39.5%) outcomes. Historical late-August averages near 23–25°C provide context, but the current synoptic pattern favors lower values. Model spread and the precise timing of any precipitation introduce the main uncertainty, with updated forecasts expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,318结束日期
2026-08-24市场开放时间
Aug 22, 2026, 1:56 AM ETRecent GFS and ensemble model runs indicate a maximum temperature in Warsaw on August 24 most likely near 18–20°C, driven by westerly flow advecting cooler maritime air and increasing cloud cover with a 40–50% chance of showers that will limit daytime heating. This follows a period of cooling after mid-August warmth, aligning closely with the market’s tight clustering on 19°C (34%) and 20°C (39.5%) outcomes. Historical late-August averages near 23–25°C provide context, but the current synoptic pattern favors lower values. Model spread and the precise timing of any precipitation introduce the main uncertainty, with updated forecasts expected to refine probabilities before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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