**Flávio Bolsonaro holds overwhelming market-implied probability for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first round because consistent polling places him clearly behind incumbent President Lula while well ahead of all other contenders.** Recent Datafolha, Quaest, PoderData, and AtlasIntel surveys from late August through early September show Lula at 38–47% and Flávio at 30–45%, with the next names—primarily Augusto Cury (Avante), now at 8–10% after recent gains—trailing by wide margins. Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and others remain in the low single digits. Flávio’s position as the Liberal Party nominee and standard-bearer for the right, following Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility, has solidified this ordering with little movement in the final pre-campaign weeks. The first-round structure and limited time before voting reinforce trader consensus around this hierarchy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 90%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 7.8%
雷南·桑托斯 1.4%
奥古斯托·库里 <1%
$6,517,768 交易量
$6,517,768 交易量
2026-10-03
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
90%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
8%
雷南·桑托斯
1%
奥古斯托·库里
1%
Romeu Zema
<1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
<1%
奥尔多·雷贝洛
<1%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
<1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
<1%
赫拉尔多·阿尔克明
<1%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
<1%
费尔南多·哈达
<1%
埃尔德·巴尔巴略
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
<1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔
<1%
爱德华多·莱特
<1%
特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜
<1%
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗 90%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦 7.8%
雷南·桑托斯 1.4%
奥古斯托·库里 <1%
$6,517,768 交易量
$6,517,768 交易量
2026-10-03
弗拉维奥·博尔索纳罗
$610,572 交易量
90%
路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦
$473,464 交易量
8%
雷南·桑托斯
$1,242,613 交易量
1%
奥古斯托·库里
$143,331 交易量
1%
Romeu Zema
$380,609 交易量
<1%
爱德华多·博尔索纳罗
$173,943 交易量
<1%
奥尔多·雷贝洛
$144,040 交易量
<1%
米歇尔·博索纳罗
$219,348 交易量
<1%
罗纳尔多·卡亚多
$453,391 交易量
<1%
赫拉尔多·阿尔克明
$229,171 交易量
<1%
卡米洛·桑塔纳
$207,849 交易量
<1%
费尔南多·哈达
$810,518 交易量
<1%
埃尔德·巴尔巴略
$20,972 交易量
<1%
塔尔西西奥·德·弗雷塔斯
$274,555 交易量
<1%
雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗
$205,331 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奥·儒尼奥尔
$750,154 交易量
<1%
爱德华多·莱特
$142,390 交易量
<1%
特雷莎·克里斯蒂娜
$35,519 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Flávio Bolsonaro holds overwhelming market-implied probability for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first round because consistent polling places him clearly behind incumbent President Lula while well ahead of all other contenders.** Recent Datafolha, Quaest, PoderData, and AtlasIntel surveys from late August through early September show Lula at 38–47% and Flávio at 30–45%, with the next names—primarily Augusto Cury (Avante), now at 8–10% after recent gains—trailing by wide margins. Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and others remain in the low single digits. Flávio’s position as the Liberal Party nominee and standard-bearer for the right, following Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility, has solidified this ordering with little movement in the final pre-campaign weeks. The first-round structure and limited time before voting reinforce trader consensus around this hierarchy.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$6,517,768结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).**Flávio Bolsonaro holds overwhelming market-implied probability for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first round because consistent polling places him clearly behind incumbent President Lula while well ahead of all other contenders.** Recent Datafolha, Quaest, PoderData, and AtlasIntel surveys from late August through early September show Lula at 38–47% and Flávio at 30–45%, with the next names—primarily Augusto Cury (Avante), now at 8–10% after recent gains—trailing by wide margins. Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and others remain in the low single digits. Flávio’s position as the Liberal Party nominee and standard-bearer for the right, following Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility, has solidified this ordering with little movement in the final pre-campaign weeks. The first-round structure and limited time before voting reinforce trader consensus around this hierarchy.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$6,517,768结束日期
2026-10-04市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 5:47 PM ET**Flávio Bolsonaro holds overwhelming market-implied probability for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first round because consistent polling places him clearly behind incumbent President Lula while well ahead of all other contenders.** Recent Datafolha, Quaest, PoderData, and AtlasIntel surveys from late August through early September show Lula at 38–47% and Flávio at 30–45%, with the next names—primarily Augusto Cury (Avante), now at 8–10% after recent gains—trailing by wide margins. Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and others remain in the low single digits. Flávio’s position as the Liberal Party nominee and standard-bearer for the right, following Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility, has solidified this ordering with little movement in the final pre-campaign weeks. The first-round structure and limited time before voting reinforce trader consensus around this hierarchy.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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