Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a fragmented field with Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne clustered between roughly 16-22 percent support, leaving fourth place highly uncertain among these contenders and smaller parties near the threshold. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition faces headwinds over housing shortages, infrastructure strains, and security issues, contributing to voter volatility as campaigns intensify in the final weeks. This close distribution sustains elevated implied probabilities across multiple outcomes in the market, with separation likely hinging on late polling shifts, turnout differences among key demographics, or standout performances in remaining debates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于绿党 46%
Linke 19%
德国选择党 14%
基民盟 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
绿党
46%
Linke
19%
德国选择党
14%
基民盟
11%
SPD
7%
FDP
5%
BSW
4%
FW
3%
绿党 46%
Linke 19%
德国选择党 14%
基民盟 11%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
绿党
$2,724 交易量
46%
Linke
$183 交易量
19%
德国选择党
$36 交易量
14%
基民盟
$56 交易量
11%
SPD
$36 交易量
7%
FDP
$99 交易量
5%
BSW
$51 交易量
4%
FW
$84 交易量
3%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a fragmented field with Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne clustered between roughly 16-22 percent support, leaving fourth place highly uncertain among these contenders and smaller parties near the threshold. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition faces headwinds over housing shortages, infrastructure strains, and security issues, contributing to voter volatility as campaigns intensify in the final weeks. This close distribution sustains elevated implied probabilities across multiple outcomes in the market, with separation likely hinging on late polling shifts, turnout differences among key demographics, or standout performances in remaining debates.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
交易量
$3,267结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a fragmented field with Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne clustered between roughly 16-22 percent support, leaving fourth place highly uncertain among these contenders and smaller parties near the threshold. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition faces headwinds over housing shortages, infrastructure strains, and security issues, contributing to voter volatility as campaigns intensify in the final weeks. This close distribution sustains elevated implied probabilities across multiple outcomes in the market, with separation likely hinging on late polling shifts, turnout differences among key demographics, or standout performances in remaining debates.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$3,267结束日期
2026-09-20市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a fragmented field with Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne clustered between roughly 16-22 percent support, leaving fourth place highly uncertain among these contenders and smaller parties near the threshold. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition faces headwinds over housing shortages, infrastructure strains, and security issues, contributing to voter volatility as campaigns intensify in the final weeks. This close distribution sustains elevated implied probabilities across multiple outcomes in the market, with separation likely hinging on late polling shifts, turnout differences among key demographics, or standout performances in remaining debates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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