**Democratic nominee Amish Shah holds a clear edge in the open AZ-01 race, with Polymarket traders assigning the party a 71.5% implied probability against Republican Jay Feely at 27.5%.** The seat became vacant after longtime Republican incumbent David Schweikert withdrew to run for governor, creating a top Democratic target in a district with a narrow R+1 to R+2 partisan lean. Trump carried it by three points in 2024, while Biden won narrowly in 2020, and Schweikert’s 2024 margin was under four points. Shah, the 2024 Democratic nominee and former state representative, benefits from residual name recognition after defeating a crowded primary field in July. Feely, a former NFL kicker backed by Trump, prevailed in the Republican primary but enters as a political newcomer in a swing suburban Phoenix district rated toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. With the November general election still two months away, trader consensus reflects the structural advantages of an open seat and Democratic investment in this competitive battleground.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
72%
共和党
28%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$6,830 交易量
72%
共和党
$1,195 交易量
28%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee Amish Shah holds a clear edge in the open AZ-01 race, with Polymarket traders assigning the party a 71.5% implied probability against Republican Jay Feely at 27.5%.**
The seat became vacant after longtime Republican incumbent David Schweikert withdrew to run for governor, creating a top Democratic target in a district with a narrow R+1 to R+2 partisan lean. Trump carried it by three points in 2024, while Biden won narrowly in 2020, and Schweikert’s 2024 margin was under four points. Shah, the 2024 Democratic nominee and former state representative, benefits from residual name recognition after defeating a crowded primary field in July. Feely, a former NFL kicker backed by Trump, prevailed in the Republican primary but enters as a political newcomer in a swing suburban Phoenix district rated toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. With the November general election still two months away, trader consensus reflects the structural advantages of an open seat and Democratic investment in this competitive battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET
交易量
$8,025结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Democratic nominee Amish Shah holds a clear edge in the open AZ-01 race, with Polymarket traders assigning the party a 71.5% implied probability against Republican Jay Feely at 27.5%.**
The seat became vacant after longtime Republican incumbent David Schweikert withdrew to run for governor, creating a top Democratic target in a district with a narrow R+1 to R+2 partisan lean. Trump carried it by three points in 2024, while Biden won narrowly in 2020, and Schweikert’s 2024 margin was under four points. Shah, the 2024 Democratic nominee and former state representative, benefits from residual name recognition after defeating a crowded primary field in July. Feely, a former NFL kicker backed by Trump, prevailed in the Republican primary but enters as a political newcomer in a swing suburban Phoenix district rated toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. With the November general election still two months away, trader consensus reflects the structural advantages of an open seat and Democratic investment in this competitive battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,025结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET**Democratic nominee Amish Shah holds a clear edge in the open AZ-01 race, with Polymarket traders assigning the party a 71.5% implied probability against Republican Jay Feely at 27.5%.** The seat became vacant after longtime Republican incumbent David Schweikert withdrew to run for governor, creating a top Democratic target in a district with a narrow R+1 to R+2 partisan lean. Trump carried it by three points in 2024, while Biden won narrowly in 2020, and Schweikert’s 2024 margin was under four points. Shah, the 2024 Democratic nominee and former state representative, benefits from residual name recognition after defeating a crowded primary field in July. Feely, a former NFL kicker backed by Trump, prevailed in the Republican primary but enters as a political newcomer in a swing suburban Phoenix district rated toss-up or lean Democratic by most forecasters. With the November general election still two months away, trader consensus reflects the structural advantages of an open seat and Democratic investment in this competitive battleground.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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