Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 29% support ahead of the October 5, 2026, election, with the Coalition Avenir Québec rising to 24% and the Quebec Liberals at 22%, amid a highly fragmented field that also includes the Conservatives and Québec solidaire. Seat projections from multiple models show the PQ on track for a plurality of seats—typically in the mid-40s—but well short of the 64 needed for a majority, as its francophone support base proves insufficient to overcome vote splitting among federalist parties and regional competition with the CAQ. The official campaign opened in late August after Premier Christine Fréchette dissolved the legislature, with trade tensions involving U.S. tariffs emerging as a visible issue that briefly boosted the CAQ before recent surveys showed the gap narrowing only modestly. A large share of voters—around 40% in recent surveys—remain undecided, and historical patterns plus current regional breakdowns indicate the PQ would likely form a minority government even if it secures the most seats. These dynamics underpin the market’s 74.5% implied probability against a PQ majority outcome.