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icon for 哪些政黨將在2026年以色列議會選舉中贏得席位？
世界·以色列

哪些政黨將在2026年以色列議會選舉中贏得席位？

icon for 哪些政黨將在2026年以色列議會選舉中贏得席位？
世界·以色列

哪些政黨將在2026年以色列議會選舉中贏得席位？

最新
2026-11-30
Polymarket

$15 交易量

Polymarket
icon for Ra'am

Ra'am

$0 交易量

79%

icon for RZP-Zehut

RZP-Zehut

$0 交易量

76%

icon for Amcha Yisrael

Amcha Yisrael

$0 交易量

48%

icon for 後備軍人與新經濟黨

後備軍人與新經濟黨

$0 交易量

47%

icon for 藍與白黨

藍與白黨

$15 交易量

30%

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls following the September 8 deadline for Knesset candidate list submissions indicate a fragmented electoral map ahead of the October 27 vote, with neither the pro-Netanyahu nor anti-Netanyahu bloc projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority on its own. Likud, Yashar led by Gadi Eisenkot, and B'Yachad led by Naftali Bennett lead seat projections in most surveys, while smaller parties including the Reservists-Economic slate, Religious Zionism-Zehut, and various Arab lists hover near or above the electoral threshold. Party mergers, such as Religious Zionism with Zehut, and fluctuating support for Otzma Yehudit and Shas shape bloc arithmetic. The outcome hinges on turnout among swing voters and whether centrist or Arab parties cross the threshold to influence coalition viability.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
交易量
$15
結束日期
2026-10-27
市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polls following the September 8 deadline for Knesset candidate list submissions indicate a fragmented electoral map ahead of the October 27 vote, with neither the pro-Netanyahu nor anti-Netanyahu bloc projected to reach the 61 seats needed for a majority on its own. Likud, Yashar led by Gadi Eisenkot, and B'Yachad led by Naftali Bennett lead seat projections in most surveys, while smaller parties including the Reservists-Economic slate, Religious Zionism-Zehut, and various Arab lists hover near or above the electoral threshold. Party mergers, such as Religious Zionism with Zehut, and fluctuating support for Otzma Yehudit and Shas shape bloc arithmetic. The outcome hinges on turnout among swing voters and whether centrist or Arab parties cross the threshold to influence coalition viability.

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. A candidate list must clear an electoral threshold of 3.25% of valid votes in order to win any seats in the Knesset. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed party wins at least one seat in the Israeli Knesset as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
交易量
$15
結束日期
2026-10-27
市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"哪些政黨將在2026年以色列議會選舉中贏得席位？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ra'am" at 79%, followed by "RZP-Zehut" at 76%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"哪些政黨將在2026年以色列議會選舉中贏得席位？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "哪些政黨將在2026年以色列議會選舉中贏得席位？," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "哪些政黨將在2026年以色列議會選舉中贏得席位？" is "Ra'am" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "RZP-Zehut" at 76%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "哪些政黨將在2026年以色列議會選舉中贏得席位？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.