Recent polls conducted after parties finalized candidate lists in early September place Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, at 22–25 Knesset seats, equating to roughly 18–21% of the vote in Israel’s proportional system ahead of the October 27 election. This positioning stems from steady support among centrist and security-focused voters, recent gains following slate announcements, and competition within the anti-Netanyahu bloc that has limited further upside. Small-party threshold risks, including potential entries or failures by groups like those led by Yoaz Hendel or Ofer Winter, continue to influence seat projections and bloc totals. Trader probabilities cluster around the 16–20% ranges because current surveys show limited movement despite ongoing security concerns and coalition negotiations, with separation likely only from major polling shifts or late alliances.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於16-18％ 41%
20-22% 35%
18-20% 34%
22-24% 33%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
少於16%
19%
16-18％
41%
18-20%
34%
20-22%
35%
22-24%
33%
24%以上
32%
16-18％ 41%
20-22% 35%
18-20% 34%
22-24% 33%
最新
最新
2026-11-30
少於16%
$0 交易量
19%
16-18％
$0 交易量
41%
18-20%
$0 交易量
34%
20-22%
$0 交易量
35%
22-24%
$0 交易量
33%
24%以上
$21 交易量
32%
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls conducted after parties finalized candidate lists in early September place Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, at 22–25 Knesset seats, equating to roughly 18–21% of the vote in Israel’s proportional system ahead of the October 27 election. This positioning stems from steady support among centrist and security-focused voters, recent gains following slate announcements, and competition within the anti-Netanyahu bloc that has limited further upside. Small-party threshold risks, including potential entries or failures by groups like those led by Yoaz Hendel or Ofer Winter, continue to influence seat projections and bloc totals. Trader probabilities cluster around the 16–20% ranges because current surveys show limited movement despite ongoing security concerns and coalition negotiations, with separation likely only from major polling shifts or late alliances.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
市場開放時間： Sep 8, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
交易量
$21結束日期
2026-11-30市場開放時間
Sep 8, 2026, 4:16 PM ETLegislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).Recent polls conducted after parties finalized candidate lists in early September place Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, at 22–25 Knesset seats, equating to roughly 18–21% of the vote in Israel’s proportional system ahead of the October 27 election. This positioning stems from steady support among centrist and security-focused voters, recent gains following slate announcements, and competition within the anti-Netanyahu bloc that has limited further upside. Small-party threshold risks, including potential entries or failures by groups like those led by Yoaz Hendel or Ofer Winter, continue to influence seat projections and bloc totals. Trader probabilities cluster around the 16–20% ranges because current surveys show limited movement despite ongoing security concerns and coalition negotiations, with separation likely only from major polling shifts or late alliances.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of the national vote won by Yashar party list in the Israeli Knesset elections.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by Yashar's party list divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted regardless of whether Yashar passes the electoral threshold and wins seats in the Knesset.
If Yashar contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all votes won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If Yashar merges with another party prior to the election, all votes won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results published by the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il/).
交易量
$21結束日期
2026-11-30市場開放時間
Sep 8, 2026, 4:16 PM ETRecent polls conducted after parties finalized candidate lists in early September place Yashar, led by Gadi Eisenkot, at 22–25 Knesset seats, equating to roughly 18–21% of the vote in Israel’s proportional system ahead of the October 27 election. This positioning stems from steady support among centrist and security-focused voters, recent gains following slate announcements, and competition within the anti-Netanyahu bloc that has limited further upside. Small-party threshold risks, including potential entries or failures by groups like those led by Yoaz Hendel or Ofer Winter, continue to influence seat projections and bloc totals. Trader probabilities cluster around the 16–20% ranges because current surveys show limited movement despite ongoing security concerns and coalition negotiations, with separation likely only from major polling shifts or late alliances.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions