Sweden's Social Democrats maintain a clear lead as the largest party in the final days before the 13 September 2026 parliamentary election, with recent polling averages placing them at approximately 28% against 19% for the Sweden Democrats, implying a roughly 9-percentage-point margin. This positioning aligns with the market's highest-probability outcome of a 7-10% margin. The gap has narrowed modestly from earlier summer levels as the right-wing Tidö bloc gains ground through improved Liberal Party support above the 4% threshold and tighter bloc competition on issues including security, immigration, and the economy. Multiple September surveys from Novus, Ipsos, and others confirm Social Democrats' consistent plurality while highlighting volatility in second-place positioning that could compress or expand the margin in the final vote count.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於S 7-10% 51%
S 4-7% 22%
S 10-13% 18%
S <4% 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
S <4%
6%
S 4-7%
22%
S 7-10%
51%
S 10-13%
18%
S 13%+
6%
其他政黨勝出
3%
S 7-10% 51%
S 4-7% 22%
S 10-13% 18%
S <4% 6%
最新
最新
2026-09-12
S <4%
$1,190 交易量
6%
S 4-7%
$14 交易量
22%
S 7-10%
$408 交易量
51%
S 10-13%
$29 交易量
18%
S 13%+
$134 交易量
6%
其他政黨勝出
$78 交易量
3%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Sweden's Social Democrats maintain a clear lead as the largest party in the final days before the 13 September 2026 parliamentary election, with recent polling averages placing them at approximately 28% against 19% for the Sweden Democrats, implying a roughly 9-percentage-point margin. This positioning aligns with the market's highest-probability outcome of a 7-10% margin. The gap has narrowed modestly from earlier summer levels as the right-wing Tidö bloc gains ground through improved Liberal Party support above the 4% threshold and tighter bloc competition on issues including security, immigration, and the economy. Multiple September surveys from Novus, Ipsos, and others confirm Social Democrats' consistent plurality while highlighting volatility in second-place positioning that could compress or expand the margin in the final vote count.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
市場開放時間： Sep 8, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
交易量
$1,853結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Sep 8, 2026, 4:58 PM ETParliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Sweden's Social Democrats maintain a clear lead as the largest party in the final days before the 13 September 2026 parliamentary election, with recent polling averages placing them at approximately 28% against 19% for the Sweden Democrats, implying a roughly 9-percentage-point margin. This positioning aligns with the market's highest-probability outcome of a 7-10% margin. The gap has narrowed modestly from earlier summer levels as the right-wing Tidö bloc gains ground through improved Liberal Party support above the 4% threshold and tighter bloc competition on issues including security, immigration, and the economy. Multiple September surveys from Novus, Ipsos, and others confirm Social Democrats' consistent plurality while highlighting volatility in second-place positioning that could compress or expand the margin in the final vote count.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid votes received in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the party that wins the most valid votes and the party that wins the second-most valid votes. Percentages of valid votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the party in question.
If the Social Democratic Party (S) ties with one or more parties for the most valid votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for S.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Another Party Wins”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten, https://www.val.se/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
交易量
$1,853結束日期
2026-09-13市場開放時間
Sep 8, 2026, 4:58 PM ETSweden's Social Democrats maintain a clear lead as the largest party in the final days before the 13 September 2026 parliamentary election, with recent polling averages placing them at approximately 28% against 19% for the Sweden Democrats, implying a roughly 9-percentage-point margin. This positioning aligns with the market's highest-probability outcome of a 7-10% margin. The gap has narrowed modestly from earlier summer levels as the right-wing Tidö bloc gains ground through improved Liberal Party support above the 4% threshold and tighter bloc competition on issues including security, immigration, and the economy. Multiple September surveys from Novus, Ipsos, and others confirm Social Democrats' consistent plurality while highlighting volatility in second-place positioning that could compress or expand the margin in the final vote count.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions