The Trump administration has sustained a maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba since early 2026, combining an effective fuel blockade, targeted sanctions on officials including President Díaz-Canel and former leader Raúl Castro (indicted in May over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown), and expanded surveillance flights. The USS Nimitz carrier strike group deployed to the Caribbean in May as a show of force alongside contingency planning at the Pentagon, while officials such as Defense Secretary Hegseth warned against Cuban arms acquisitions. Cuba faces severe energy shortages and blackouts, prompting limited bilateral talks on economic and security issues, though no military operation has occurred and U.S. resources remain partly committed elsewhere. Scheduled diplomatic or enforcement steps could still influence escalation risks through the remainder of the year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$7,379,222 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
14%
$7,379,222 交易量
12月31日
$5,200,117 交易量
14%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The Trump administration has sustained a maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba since early 2026, combining an effective fuel blockade, targeted sanctions on officials including President Díaz-Canel and former leader Raúl Castro (indicted in May over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown), and expanded surveillance flights. The USS Nimitz carrier strike group deployed to the Caribbean in May as a show of force alongside contingency planning at the Pentagon, while officials such as Defense Secretary Hegseth warned against Cuban arms acquisitions. Cuba faces severe energy shortages and blackouts, prompting limited bilateral talks on economic and security issues, though no military operation has occurred and U.S. resources remain partly committed elsewhere. Scheduled diplomatic or enforcement steps could still influence escalation risks through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間： Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
交易量
$7,379,222結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The Trump administration has sustained a maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba since early 2026, combining an effective fuel blockade, targeted sanctions on officials including President Díaz-Canel and former leader Raúl Castro (indicted in May over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown), and expanded surveillance flights. The USS Nimitz carrier strike group deployed to the Caribbean in May as a show of force alongside contingency planning at the Pentagon, while officials such as Defense Secretary Hegseth warned against Cuban arms acquisitions. Cuba faces severe energy shortages and blackouts, prompting limited bilateral talks on economic and security issues, though no military operation has occurred and U.S. resources remain partly committed elsewhere. Scheduled diplomatic or enforcement steps could still influence escalation risks through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$7,379,222結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETThe Trump administration has sustained a maximum-pressure campaign against Cuba since early 2026, combining an effective fuel blockade, targeted sanctions on officials including President Díaz-Canel and former leader Raúl Castro (indicted in May over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown), and expanded surveillance flights. The USS Nimitz carrier strike group deployed to the Caribbean in May as a show of force alongside contingency planning at the Pentagon, while officials such as Defense Secretary Hegseth warned against Cuban arms acquisitions. Cuba faces severe energy shortages and blackouts, prompting limited bilateral talks on economic and security issues, though no military operation has occurred and U.S. resources remain partly committed elsewhere. Scheduled diplomatic or enforcement steps could still influence escalation risks through the remainder of the year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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