Recent patterns of frequent minor incidents at OpenAI, including elevated error rates affecting ChatGPT conversations, logins, Thinking mode, and image generation, primarily drive the closely matched market odds around 1–3 outage days for September 2026. Data from status trackers show dozens of short-duration events (often under four hours) across recent months, tied to high usage scaling, configuration changes, and infrastructure strain on large language model services, even as baseline uptime trends improve modestly. Traders weigh OpenAI’s rapid mitigations and historical averages of several disrupted days per month against the possibility of fewer issues from ongoing reliability investments or a spike from new model rollouts. The tight spread between low single-digit outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact thresholds for what qualifies as an outage day amid mostly partial disruptions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2 23%
1 21%
5次或以上 20%
3 18%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
少於1次
14%
1
21%
2
23%
3
18%
4
16%
5次或以上
20%
2 23%
1 21%
5次或以上 20%
3 18%
最新
最新
2026-09-30
少於1次
$52 交易量
14%
1
$56 交易量
21%
2
$76 交易量
23%
3
$129 交易量
18%
4
$36 交易量
16%
5次或以上
$42 交易量
20%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent patterns of frequent minor incidents at OpenAI, including elevated error rates affecting ChatGPT conversations, logins, Thinking mode, and image generation, primarily drive the closely matched market odds around 1–3 outage days for September 2026. Data from status trackers show dozens of short-duration events (often under four hours) across recent months, tied to high usage scaling, configuration changes, and infrastructure strain on large language model services, even as baseline uptime trends improve modestly. Traders weigh OpenAI’s rapid mitigations and historical averages of several disrupted days per month against the possibility of fewer issues from ongoing reliability investments or a spike from new model rollouts. The tight spread between low single-digit outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact thresholds for what qualifies as an outage day amid mostly partial disruptions.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 26, 2026, 6:11 PM ET
交易量
$391結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 6:11 PM ETThis market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent patterns of frequent minor incidents at OpenAI, including elevated error rates affecting ChatGPT conversations, logins, Thinking mode, and image generation, primarily drive the closely matched market odds around 1–3 outage days for September 2026. Data from status trackers show dozens of short-duration events (often under four hours) across recent months, tied to high usage scaling, configuration changes, and infrastructure strain on large language model services, even as baseline uptime trends improve modestly. Traders weigh OpenAI’s rapid mitigations and historical averages of several disrupted days per month against the possibility of fewer issues from ongoing reliability investments or a spike from new model rollouts. The tight spread between low single-digit outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact thresholds for what qualifies as an outage day amid mostly partial disruptions.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance").
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page.
This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$391結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 6:11 PM ETRecent patterns of frequent minor incidents at OpenAI, including elevated error rates affecting ChatGPT conversations, logins, Thinking mode, and image generation, primarily drive the closely matched market odds around 1–3 outage days for September 2026. Data from status trackers show dozens of short-duration events (often under four hours) across recent months, tied to high usage scaling, configuration changes, and infrastructure strain on large language model services, even as baseline uptime trends improve modestly. Traders weigh OpenAI’s rapid mitigations and historical averages of several disrupted days per month against the possibility of fewer issues from ongoing reliability investments or a spike from new model rollouts. The tight spread between low single-digit outcomes reflects uncertainty over exact thresholds for what qualifies as an outage day amid mostly partial disruptions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions