Google Gemini models have posted incremental gains on Humanity’s Last Exam through frequent 2026 releases such as Gemini 3.7 Flash and 3.8 Flash, reaching roughly 47–51% on text-only or no-tools evaluations as of mid-September. These scores remain well behind Anthropic’s leading Claude variants near 65%, reflecting differences in reasoning depth and specialized knowledge handling across the 2,500-question benchmark. Trader focus centers on Google’s release cadence, including ongoing pre-training for Gemini 4 and refinements to agentic capabilities in Flash iterations, which could narrow the gap before year-end resolution. Historical benchmark climbs suggest further modest lifts are feasible, though saturation remains distant and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic continues to shape positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$80,430 交易量
2026-12-31
50% 以上
79%
55%+
26%
60% 以上
21%
65%及以上
12%
70% 以上
4%
$80,430 交易量
50% 以上
$29,781 交易量
79%
55%+
$26,866 交易量
26%
60% 以上
$14,291 交易量
21%
65%及以上
$5,134 交易量
12%
70% 以上
$4,358 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google Gemini models have posted incremental gains on Humanity’s Last Exam through frequent 2026 releases such as Gemini 3.7 Flash and 3.8 Flash, reaching roughly 47–51% on text-only or no-tools evaluations as of mid-September. These scores remain well behind Anthropic’s leading Claude variants near 65%, reflecting differences in reasoning depth and specialized knowledge handling across the 2,500-question benchmark. Trader focus centers on Google’s release cadence, including ongoing pre-training for Gemini 4 and refinements to agentic capabilities in Flash iterations, which could narrow the gap before year-end resolution. Historical benchmark climbs suggest further modest lifts are feasible, though saturation remains distant and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic continues to shape positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
市場開放時間： Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ET
交易量
$80,430結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Google Gemini models have posted incremental gains on Humanity’s Last Exam through frequent 2026 releases such as Gemini 3.7 Flash and 3.8 Flash, reaching roughly 47–51% on text-only or no-tools evaluations as of mid-September. These scores remain well behind Anthropic’s leading Claude variants near 65%, reflecting differences in reasoning depth and specialized knowledge handling across the 2,500-question benchmark. Trader focus centers on Google’s release cadence, including ongoing pre-training for Gemini 4 and refinements to agentic capabilities in Flash iterations, which could narrow the gap before year-end resolution. Historical benchmark climbs suggest further modest lifts are feasible, though saturation remains distant and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic continues to shape positioning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Google Gemini model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$80,430結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 23, 2026, 6:56 PM ETGoogle Gemini models have posted incremental gains on Humanity’s Last Exam through frequent 2026 releases such as Gemini 3.7 Flash and 3.8 Flash, reaching roughly 47–51% on text-only or no-tools evaluations as of mid-September. These scores remain well behind Anthropic’s leading Claude variants near 65%, reflecting differences in reasoning depth and specialized knowledge handling across the 2,500-question benchmark. Trader focus centers on Google’s release cadence, including ongoing pre-training for Gemini 4 and refinements to agentic capabilities in Flash iterations, which could narrow the gap before year-end resolution. Historical benchmark climbs suggest further modest lifts are feasible, though saturation remains distant and competitive pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic continues to shape positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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