**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other sources project a low of 56°F for San Francisco on August 30, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 56-57°F outcome at 65.5% implied probability.** This reflects San Francisco’s marine climate, where the Pacific Ocean and onshore southwest winds moderate overnight temperatures through the marine layer, preventing sharp drops typical of inland areas. Forecasts consistently indicate partly cloudy skies transitioning to mostly cloudy overnight, with lows in the mid-50s and normal minimums of 56°F for late August. Yesterday’s observed minimum of exactly 56°F at San Francisco International Airport further anchors trader expectations. Secondary probabilities for 54-55°F (38.5%) and 52-53°F (37.5%) capture residual uncertainty from model variations or microclimate differences across observation sites, while lower bins remain near zero given the absence of cooler air advection or unusual fog patterns. No recent shifts in atmospheric conditions have altered the consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於舊金山8月30日的最低溫度？
舊金山8月30日的最低溫度？
56-57°F 81%
52-53°F 9%
50-51°F 7%
48-49°F <1%
$1,297 交易量
$1,297 交易量
2026-08-30
47°F或以下
<1%
48-49°F
<1%
50-51°F
7%
52-53°F
9%
54-55°F
38%
56-57°F
66%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66°F或以上
<1%
56-57°F 81%
52-53°F 9%
50-51°F 7%
48-49°F <1%
$1,297 交易量
$1,297 交易量
2026-08-30
47°F或以下
$284 交易量
<1%
48-49°F
$45 交易量
<1%
50-51°F
$76 交易量
7%
52-53°F
$39 交易量
9%
54-55°F
$115 交易量
38%
56-57°F
$32 交易量
66%
58-59°F
$77 交易量
<1%
60-61°F
$285 交易量
<1%
62-63°F
$117 交易量
<1%
64-65°F
$172 交易量
<1%
66°F或以上
$55 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other sources project a low of 56°F for San Francisco on August 30, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 56-57°F outcome at 65.5% implied probability.**
This reflects San Francisco’s marine climate, where the Pacific Ocean and onshore southwest winds moderate overnight temperatures through the marine layer, preventing sharp drops typical of inland areas. Forecasts consistently indicate partly cloudy skies transitioning to mostly cloudy overnight, with lows in the mid-50s and normal minimums of 56°F for late August. Yesterday’s observed minimum of exactly 56°F at San Francisco International Airport further anchors trader expectations.
Secondary probabilities for 54-55°F (38.5%) and 52-53°F (37.5%) capture residual uncertainty from model variations or microclimate differences across observation sites, while lower bins remain near zero given the absence of cooler air advection or unusual fog patterns. No recent shifts in atmospheric conditions have altered the consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
交易量
$1,297結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other sources project a low of 56°F for San Francisco on August 30, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 56-57°F outcome at 65.5% implied probability.**
This reflects San Francisco’s marine climate, where the Pacific Ocean and onshore southwest winds moderate overnight temperatures through the marine layer, preventing sharp drops typical of inland areas. Forecasts consistently indicate partly cloudy skies transitioning to mostly cloudy overnight, with lows in the mid-50s and normal minimums of 56°F for late August. Yesterday’s observed minimum of exactly 56°F at San Francisco International Airport further anchors trader expectations.
Secondary probabilities for 54-55°F (38.5%) and 52-53°F (37.5%) capture residual uncertainty from model variations or microclimate differences across observation sites, while lower bins remain near zero given the absence of cooler air advection or unusual fog patterns. No recent shifts in atmospheric conditions have altered the consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,297結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET**Official forecasts from the National Weather Service and other sources project a low of 56°F for San Francisco on August 30, 2026, aligning with the market's leading 56-57°F outcome at 65.5% implied probability.** This reflects San Francisco’s marine climate, where the Pacific Ocean and onshore southwest winds moderate overnight temperatures through the marine layer, preventing sharp drops typical of inland areas. Forecasts consistently indicate partly cloudy skies transitioning to mostly cloudy overnight, with lows in the mid-50s and normal minimums of 56°F for late August. Yesterday’s observed minimum of exactly 56°F at San Francisco International Airport further anchors trader expectations. Secondary probabilities for 54-55°F (38.5%) and 52-53°F (37.5%) capture residual uncertainty from model variations or microclimate differences across observation sites, while lower bins remain near zero given the absence of cooler air advection or unusual fog patterns. No recent shifts in atmospheric conditions have altered the consensus.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions