The active southwest monsoon, or habagat, is the dominant driver keeping Manila's overnight low anchored near 28°C on August 23, 2026, with PAGASA and AccuWeather guidance showing persistent cloud cover and scattered showers that suppress radiative cooling. This maintains minimum temperatures in the 24–27°C range, consistent with the month's climatological average low of 25°C and recent station readings near 26–27°C. Traders have priced the 72.5% implied probability on 28°C as the upper bound of expected outcomes under these stable monsoon conditions, while lower thresholds like 25°C or below carry reduced odds absent any model shift toward clearer skies or stronger winds that could enhance cooling overnight. Updated forecasts this morning continue to support this range ahead of final resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月23日馬尼拉的最低溫度？
8月23日馬尼拉的最低溫度？
28°C 91%
25°C 19%
26°C 19%
27°C 19%
$1,131 交易量
$1,131 交易量
2026-08-23
21°C或以下
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
8%
24°C
17%
25°C
19%
26°C
19%
27°C
19%
28°C
73%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C或以上
<1%
28°C 91%
25°C 19%
26°C 19%
27°C 19%
$1,131 交易量
$1,131 交易量
2026-08-23
21°C或以下
$120 交易量
1%
22°C
$131 交易量
1%
23°C
$74 交易量
8%
24°C
$87 交易量
17%
25°C
$12 交易量
19%
26°C
$0 交易量
19%
27°C
$0 交易量
19%
28°C
$97 交易量
73%
29°C
$291 交易量
<1%
30°C
$125 交易量
<1%
31°C或以上
$194 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The active southwest monsoon, or habagat, is the dominant driver keeping Manila's overnight low anchored near 28°C on August 23, 2026, with PAGASA and AccuWeather guidance showing persistent cloud cover and scattered showers that suppress radiative cooling. This maintains minimum temperatures in the 24–27°C range, consistent with the month's climatological average low of 25°C and recent station readings near 26–27°C. Traders have priced the 72.5% implied probability on 28°C as the upper bound of expected outcomes under these stable monsoon conditions, while lower thresholds like 25°C or below carry reduced odds absent any model shift toward clearer skies or stronger winds that could enhance cooling overnight. Updated forecasts this morning continue to support this range ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 21, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
交易量
$1,131結束日期
2026-08-23市場開放時間
Aug 21, 2026, 12:32 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The active southwest monsoon, or habagat, is the dominant driver keeping Manila's overnight low anchored near 28°C on August 23, 2026, with PAGASA and AccuWeather guidance showing persistent cloud cover and scattered showers that suppress radiative cooling. This maintains minimum temperatures in the 24–27°C range, consistent with the month's climatological average low of 25°C and recent station readings near 26–27°C. Traders have priced the 72.5% implied probability on 28°C as the upper bound of expected outcomes under these stable monsoon conditions, while lower thresholds like 25°C or below carry reduced odds absent any model shift toward clearer skies or stronger winds that could enhance cooling overnight. Updated forecasts this morning continue to support this range ahead of final resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,131結束日期
2026-08-23市場開放時間
Aug 21, 2026, 12:32 AM ETThe active southwest monsoon, or habagat, is the dominant driver keeping Manila's overnight low anchored near 28°C on August 23, 2026, with PAGASA and AccuWeather guidance showing persistent cloud cover and scattered showers that suppress radiative cooling. This maintains minimum temperatures in the 24–27°C range, consistent with the month's climatological average low of 25°C and recent station readings near 26–27°C. Traders have priced the 72.5% implied probability on 28°C as the upper bound of expected outcomes under these stable monsoon conditions, while lower thresholds like 25°C or below carry reduced odds absent any model shift toward clearer skies or stronger winds that could enhance cooling overnight. Updated forecasts this morning continue to support this range ahead of final resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions