Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions dominate Manila's outlook for August 24, driving the market's clustering around 30–32°C with combined implied probability near 74%. Official PAGASA guidance projects daytime highs near 30–32°C amid 40–80% rain chances, scattered thunderstorms, and extensive cloud cover that suppresses insolation and caps afternoon peaks. Trader dispersion across 29–33°C reflects uncertainty in convective timing and intensity: sustained heavy rainfall favors the lower end while brief clearing or reduced thunderstorm activity could permit brief spikes to 32–33°C. Historical August baselines near 30–31°C provide context, yet model variability in monsoon strength keeps resolution sensitive to the latest forecast updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月24日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
8月24日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
31°C 34%
30°C 22%
32°C 21%
29°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
24°C或以下
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
3%
29°C
8%
30°C
22%
31°C
34%
32°C
21%
33°C
6%
34°C或更高
2%
31°C 34%
30°C 22%
32°C 21%
29°C 8%
最新
最新
2026-08-24
24°C或以下
$9 交易量
<1%
25°C
$0 交易量
<1%
26°C
$135 交易量
<1%
27°C
$85 交易量
1%
28°C
$142 交易量
3%
29°C
$75 交易量
8%
30°C
$405 交易量
22%
31°C
$691 交易量
34%
32°C
$1,372 交易量
21%
33°C
$859 交易量
6%
34°C或更高
$302 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions dominate Manila's outlook for August 24, driving the market's clustering around 30–32°C with combined implied probability near 74%. Official PAGASA guidance projects daytime highs near 30–32°C amid 40–80% rain chances, scattered thunderstorms, and extensive cloud cover that suppresses insolation and caps afternoon peaks. Trader dispersion across 29–33°C reflects uncertainty in convective timing and intensity: sustained heavy rainfall favors the lower end while brief clearing or reduced thunderstorm activity could permit brief spikes to 32–33°C. Historical August baselines near 30–31°C provide context, yet model variability in monsoon strength keeps resolution sensitive to the latest forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$4,074結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions dominate Manila's outlook for August 24, driving the market's clustering around 30–32°C with combined implied probability near 74%. Official PAGASA guidance projects daytime highs near 30–32°C amid 40–80% rain chances, scattered thunderstorms, and extensive cloud cover that suppresses insolation and caps afternoon peaks. Trader dispersion across 29–33°C reflects uncertainty in convective timing and intensity: sustained heavy rainfall favors the lower end while brief clearing or reduced thunderstorm activity could permit brief spikes to 32–33°C. Historical August baselines near 30–31°C provide context, yet model variability in monsoon strength keeps resolution sensitive to the latest forecast updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$4,074結束日期
2026-08-24市場開放時間
Aug 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ETPersistent southwest monsoon (habagat) conditions dominate Manila's outlook for August 24, driving the market's clustering around 30–32°C with combined implied probability near 74%. Official PAGASA guidance projects daytime highs near 30–32°C amid 40–80% rain chances, scattered thunderstorms, and extensive cloud cover that suppresses insolation and caps afternoon peaks. Trader dispersion across 29–33°C reflects uncertainty in convective timing and intensity: sustained heavy rainfall favors the lower end while brief clearing or reduced thunderstorm activity could permit brief spikes to 32–33°C. Historical August baselines near 30–31°C provide context, yet model variability in monsoon strength keeps resolution sensitive to the latest forecast updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions